Weekend 11/3/2024
Stock Market Internals
The NYSE Advance Decline Line is the most reliable indicator of market breadth. Even the bounce back rally Friday did not reverse the trend.
Less than half 46% of the NASD stocks are above their 50 day Moving Average MA.
Sam measure, 49% of SPX stocks are above their 50 day MA
The bullish percent of stocks in the NASD, DJIA NYSE SPX have all fallen from the OCt 17 high.
The SPX index was up .4% Friday. But the bullish percent was down 2.1%. This is due to the over weighting of various stocks in the index whereas the bullish percent is unweighted.
The message is that the internals of the market are falling despite the rosy outlook one hears on the TV business channels.
New highs versus new lows is now negative for the daily NDX.
The tech neavy NASD NDX las led all the indexes higher it is now doing the opposite leading to the downside.
NASD Advance Decline
Do you still think earnings drive stock prices? Here is Apple's earning report for the quarter ended 9/30/2024.
Cupertino, California October 27, 2022 Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022. The Company posted a September quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.29, up 4 percent year over year. Annual revenue was $394.3 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and annual earnings per diluted share were $6.11, up 9 percent year over year.
Apple stock was down 1.33% Friday and has fallen from 237 to 223 in the last few days. MSFT met or exceeded earning expectations and so
the stock gaped down from 435 to 410 the last three days
Interest Rates
Look how fast the 2 year T Note yield is rising AFTER the FED rate cut. The FED cut rates a half point Sept 18, the blue arrows A few days later rates began soaring again. That is a 19% increase since late Sept and in just one month!
Gold Silver
Gold just backed off all time highs of $2800. I think it is correcting and could easily do so to $2600.
Silver is certainly correcting down from 35 to 32.68 since Oct 21. Silver FINALLY broke thru 30 and it may well re test that break out before advancing again.
This Blog New Civil War
This weblog launched March 2009. I noted that the map of the Civil War States, Red / Blue, the right to work map, and the voting map Dem Rep were all the same. Today the country is even more polarized with each side engaged in the very worst name calling. All this is happening at DJIA 42,000. Back then the DJIA was breaking thru the 200 MONTH moving average then around 10,000. Now the 200 month MA is 21,495 about half where the average is now at 42,000. That is a very reasonable target. Stocks fall seven times as fast as they rise. A two year time period to that target is not unreasonable. It took two years from 1973-Dec 74 to cut the DJIA in half back then. No one I knew that it would happen but it did.
IF you think mood is negative now, just wait for DJIA 20,000.