12/27/2024
Today's encore selection -- from Listening for America by Rob Kapilow. Arlen and Harburg and Somewhere Over the Rainbow:
"Harold Arlen would collaborate with Yip Harburg on one of the most successful Hollywood films of all time. A film that by its very nature would fit smoothly into the world of the Hays Code. The quintessential family film: MGM's The Wizard of Oz.
"By the time Arlen and Harburg became part of the Wizard of Oz team, they both had considerable experience with Hollywood, and none of that experience had been particularly unusual or rewarding. Busby Berkeley's extraordinary 1933 trifecta of hits -- 42nd Street, Footlight Parade, and Golddiggers of 1933 -- had revived interest in the film musical, and Arlen was one of the many composers hired to fill the renewed demand. For his first picture, Let's Fall in Love (1933), Arlen wrote five songs: two were discarded, two remained in the film, and one was turned into background music. This was a much better result than most. When Rodgers and Hart's musical On Your Toes was turned into a film in 1939, all that survived from the original score were a few songs that had become underscoring.
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"The Wizard of Oz, however, was one of the few film musicals of the 1930s in which the music, lyrics, dances, and book were fully integrated into the final film. Though ten screenwriters wrote multiple versions of the script and four directors at different times worked on portions of the film, all of the songs and lyrics were Arlen's and Harburg's. The two were involved with the production from the outset thanks to the influence of Arthur Freed. Though technically only an assistant to producer Mervyn Leroy, Freed made most of the musical decisions for the film, and it was Freed who hired Arlen and Harburg in May 1938 on a fourteen-week contract for $25,000. At the time, the script was still in its earliest stages, and the only hired actor was the sixteen-year-old Judy Garland. Film musicals were normally star-driven, and the composer's job was to tailor the songs to fit each star's particular personality and talents. But The Wizard of Oz offered Arlen and Harburg the rare opportunity to write music and shape the story before stars even entered the picture.
"They began with what they called 'the lemon-drop songs' -- the lighter material like 'Ding Dong! The Witch Is Dead' and 'We're Off to See the Wizard ' -- but though these songs came relatively quickly, they struggled with the ballad that would define Dorothy's character and become the film's signature song. 'I felt we needed something with a sweep, a melody with a broad, long line,' Arlen said. 'Time was getting short, I was getting anxious. My feeling was that picture songs need to be lush, and picture songs are hard to write.' Though stories about the inspiration for famous songs tend to be polished over years and years of retellings, according to Arlen, the song came to him out of the blue while he was driving with his wife to a movie at Grauman's Chinese Theater. He immediately stopped the car across from Schwab's drugstore and jotted down the melody. 'It was as if the Lord said, "Well, here it is, now stop worrying about it!"'
"But the song almost didn't make it past Harburg. When he first heard Arlen play it, Harburg thought the song was too old and symphonic for Dorothy's character. Ira Gershwin, however, liked it so much he helped convince Harburg, and the song became part of the score. Or so they thought. The studio executives, unfortunately, didn't want it. They thought it slowed down the opening of the picture, was too difficult to sing, and wouldn't sell sheet music or get played on the radio. After the first sneak preview, the studio head, Louis B. Mayer, cut the song for the next preview, at which point an enraged Arthur Freed essentially said, 'Either the song stays or I go.' 'Over the Rainbow' was inserted back into the film, the audience loved it, and the rest, as they say, is history. But what is it that makes this iconic song so great?
"In an interview for Aljean Harmetz's book The Making of the Wizard of Oz, Harburg described his creative process for the opening of the song:
The book had said Kansas was an arid place where not even flowers grew. The only colorful thing Dorothy saw, occasionally, would be the rainbow. I thought that the rainbow could be a bridge from one place to another. A rainbow gave us a visual reason for going to a new land and a reason for changing to color. 'Over the Rainbow Is Where I Want To Be' was my title, the title I gave Harold. A title has to ring a bell, has to blow a couple of Roman candles off. But he gave me a tune with those first two notes. I tried I'll go over the rainbow, Someday over the rainbow. I had difficulty coming to the idea of Somewhere. For a while I thought I would just leave those first two notes out. It was a long time before I came to Somewhere over the rainbow.
"Interestingly enough, the 'bridge from one place to another' that Harburg refers to is already set up beautifully before the song even begins. After Dorothy tries to tell her aunt and uncle about the unfortunate incident between the town spinster Miss Gulch and Dorothy's dog Toto, an annoyed Aunt Em tells Dorothy to 'find yourself a place where you won't get into any trouble.' Though Aunt Em is simply referring to an actual, physical place on the farm where Dorothy won't get into trouble, as Dorothy reflects on this, she turns the real into the metaphorical, saying to Toto, 'Some place where there isn't any trouble. Do you suppose there is such a place, Toto? There must be. It's not a place you can get to by a boat, or a train. It's far, far away. Behind the moon, beyond the rain.' This little scene elegantly creates a 'bridge from one place to another' from the reality of Dorothy's Kansas farm to the world of her imagination, a world that comes to life with the first two notes of 'Over the Rainbow.'
"In a musical language utterly different from the through-composed, nonrepetitive style of 'Stormy Weather,' 'Over the Rainbow' has only two melodic ideas in its famous opening. The first I will call 'leap,' and the second 'circle-and-yearn.' The full-octave leap on 'somewhere' is enormous for the opening of a popular song. It's a leap between two different parts of the voice -- and between two different worlds. The first note is low, almost in chest voice. It's Dorothy's troubled reality -- Kansas, aridity, no flowers, the black and white of the opening of the film. The second note is higher, lighter, and more ethereal. It's 'over the rainbow,' Oz, the place she wants to escape to. The other melodic idea occurs in the second measure, on 'over the rainbow.' It begins on a B, circles back to a B, and then yearns upward to a C. These gestures -- leap and circle and yearn -- are the two key musical ideas of the song."
Weekend 11/30/2024
The market is in a parabolic rise and those end only one way.
From Motley Fool a previous post
Most investors are likely familiar with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which divides a company's share price into its trailing-12-month earnings per share (EPS). The traditional P/E ratio can be a fine tool for quickly assessing relative value for mature stocks, but it's often lacking in the sense that it fails to factor in future growth potential and struggles during shock events.
By comparison, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio, which is also commonly known as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE ratio, is based on average inflation-adjusted EPS from the previous 10 years. Examining 10 years' worth of earnings data smooths out the impact of shock events and leads to apples-to-apples valuation comparisons.
As of the closing bell on Nov. 25, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E reached 38.20, which is or more less a high reading for the current bull market, and more than double the 153-year average of 17.17, when back-tested to January 1871. More importantly, this marks the third-highest Shiller P/E reading during a continuous bull market over the last 153 years.'
The only two times the stock market has been pricier than it is now was prior to the dot-com bubble bursting, which saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite respectively lose 49% and 78% of their value, and during late 2021/early 2022. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all endured bear market declines in 2022, with the Nasdaq, once again, getting hit the hardest.
And it's not just the Shiller P/E that's foreshadowing trouble for Wall Street. The valuation tool Warren Buffett once touted as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment," hit its highest reading ever in November.
The "Buffett Indicator," which divides the market cap of publicly traded companies (via the Wilshire 5000 Index) into gross domestic product (GDP), topped 200% for the first time ever in October and nearly reached 206% this month. The average for the Buffett indicator since 1970 is about 85%, with peaks of 144% prior to the dot-com bubble and 107% before the financial crisis.
These historically accurate indicators suggest President-Elect Trump may oversee a sizable stock market correction.
QQQ
Here is a classic textbook unfolding Elliott Wave via the QQQ NASD 100
I was thinking again of the 1973-4 disaster, INDU down 50% in two years. The smaller stocks were just wiped out. Many brokerages were bought or had to merge to continue to exist. DuPont and Walston (one firm by then) went down altogether and were sold piece meal to other firms. It too until 1979 but then wire house Shearson bought storied Loeb Rhoades, oh perish the thought. Back then the snooty North East firms demanded to be listed at the top of the tombstone ads. These ads recorded that IPOs had been made and listed the underwriting group. First Boston, later acquired by Credit Suisse, was always on the first line.
| 1973-01-01 | 1026.82 |
| 1973-02-01 | 974.04 |
| 1973-03-01 | 957.35 |
| 1973-04-01 | 944.10 |
| 1973-05-01 | 922.41 |
| 1973-06-01 | 893.90 |
| 1973-07-01 | 903.61 |
| 1973-08-01 | 883.73 |
| 1973-09-01 | 909.98 |
| 1973-10-01 | 967.62 |
| 1973-11-01 | 878.98 |
| 1973-12-01 | 824.08 |
| 1974-01-01 | 857.24 |
| 1974-02-01 | 831.34 |
| 1974-03-01 | 874.00 |
| 1974-04-01 | 847.79 |
| 1974-05-01 | 830.25 |
| 1974-06-01 | 831.43 |
| 1974-07-01 | 783.00 |
| 1974-08-01 | 729.31 |
| 1974-09-01 | 651.28 |
| 1974-10-01 | 638.63 |
| 1974-11-01 | 642.10 |
| 1974-12-01 | 596.50 |
The final low that 12/74 was 577.
Another similarity now and then was the Presidential election. This time Harris managed to eek out 226 helectoral votes.
But look at the map. Seven totally Dem controlled states got her those votes, OR WA CA IL NY VA, and okay MA.
In 1972 Nixon took victory 520 to 17 as the Dems did not control those seven states. Republicans were Governors of California, an impossibility now.
Okay understanding that Trump stunned the liberal press, just as Nixon's come back in 1968 ha done the same. Note, he had lost the Presidential race in 1960 to Kennedy and then lost the CA Governor race in 1962 saying you, the press, won't have Nixon to kick around anymore.
The similarities of Trump and Nixon
Two unlikely comebacks by each of them
Both were hated by the mainstream press
Both inherited a stock market at new all time highs, just as Herbert Hoover did in 1929.
Another similarity, Hoover won 444 to 87 over Al Smith.
Hoover was creamed in 1932, 472 to 59.
Nixon had the hated Viet Nam war. Trump inherits two wars in the Mid East and Ukraine, not as big an issue now as then.
Nixon was continually investigated over the Watergate break in just as Trump was law fared in no less than four jurisdictions. Trump appears to have dodged his legal problems for now.
Trump's pick for AG died quickly. Defense and National Security don't look much better. Robert Kennedy, hard to say.
Even now the polarization continues with CA and CO Governors vowing to oppose all things Trump.
My point being things can change quickly. I don't think the stock collapse was Hoover's fault but the voters rejected him one election later with about the same lopsided result but opposite the next time.
Social mood can change on a dime and is unremembered.
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A further thought, what could go wrong?
How about invade Mexico.
The US tried before during WW I with General Pershing, we lost.
Wed Sept 18, 2024
About to embark on a world tour, global pop sensation Skye Riley begins experiencing increasingly terrifying and inexplicable events. Overwhelmed by the escalating horrors and the pressures of fame, Skye is forced to face her past.
Modern horror films were born during the 1930s Depression, Frankenstein, Wolf Man, and Dracula were all popular. Negative mood seeks out negative themes and these films were just that. Gangster films were also popular including Public Enemy and White HEat with Jimmy Cagney. These themes were repeated in the 1970s with the Exorcist, the most frightening film ever the ads claimed, and Godfather 1 & 2.
Now we see a repeat with Quiet Place 1 & 2.
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Horror moves to Television
HBO debuts a multi segment series this week featuring Colin Farrell as The Penquin. This is a character he played in the 2022 Te Batman movie. But this time around there is not Batman, more time for horror.
The review on page A 11 of today's Nov 19 WSj puts it this way. The Penquin is a homicidal maniac with a Mother fixation. The review mentions this is a flashback to the character Cagney played in White Heat.
Here is part of the review
How did we get here, one might ask? The evolution of The Batman—from DC Comics to campy network TV to the grim vision of Frank Miller’s graphic novels to Christopher Nolan’s masterly interpretations—seems symptomatic of a darker worldview. And darker world. But adaptations like “The Penguin”—or, lest anyone forget, 2019’s “Joker”—are more reflective of a hunger among audiences for something more genuine, not just in their Batman stories but in their myths and histories generally. The original DC myth is laughable in a world in which everyone is a Freudian; the concept of costumed crime fighters—and criminals—seems fairly ludicrous without sufficient psychological trauma and an accompanying profile to back it up. “The Penguin” is an attempt to fill a fictional void.
A hunger for something more genuine, really? I would say again that it is just a hunger for negative mood which Mr. Farrell will deliver eight times over.
Wed Aug 28 2024
Like AB, see previous post, Kent started on youtube. He literally cooked for cowboys on ranches in Okalhoma, He blossomed into a one man cooking workshop now with his own website and an array of products. Again this is a true American success story. Like AB he exudes personality on screen, you can see either by going to you tube and inserting cooking wit AB or Kent Rollins.