Monday March 9 2020
The Elliot Wave Theory is basically a cycle idea. Cycles are evident in nature as crops are planted and grow and seasons change
summer fall winter spring
those changes are inevitable but apply this to a social activity, and no one wants to believe it
I think the resistance on Elliott Wave EW or any other model is that people are
used to the news telling them an external event X caused a social event A
for example right now the virus is causing the stock market to sell off even thoug the virus has been known for months
and they reject the inevitable believing that some external force, a different Preident, the FED Reserve, an expenditure by Congress,whatever can change the outcome
Worst of all are politicians who think their personal charisma can make a difference, (John Kerry - let me talk to them)
This is an ideal week to decide whether social mood
My weekly newspaper columns for 2020 are in a nearby post, take a read
Now we already have companies trading at or below book value, which are real values?
By 1987 the Saudis were weary of OPEC cheating, they would agree on productions cuts but no one would cut, Saudi became the Swing Producer, the only one cutting production Finally the Saudi said that is it, we are not cutting. The price plunges to $12.
The same thing has happened now, Russia would not agree to cuts to Saudi said, okay we are cutting price to $312.
I seriously doubt this will stop Russia from selling at $31 as they have nothing else to sell, Okay Stoli vodka but how much of that sells by the barrel?
Cullen Frost Bank
This is not the end but the start of a week. CFR book value is $60. It closed the day at 54.12. Is it headed for $44?
CFR book value is 60.11, dividend is 3.8%
Exxon Mobil
XOM book value is 45.26, dividend at this level is 7%
The value of an accounting degree, well one value, is to identify value, are these two long running well managed companies a great buy now?
Or does one dollar average into them?
If you do not know, look up dollar averaging.
Actually I think Conoco Phillips is a better managed company
Proof of this idea is that COP is above book value of 32 while XOM is already below book,somehow the market knows these things.
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