Weekend March 24 2013
Buying a gold miner is like buying an oilfield service company.
When oil is cheap no one wants service companies, they are wanting for work and letting employees go. When oil prices are up though it is a sellers market for them, they can name their price and so their share prices soar faster than an energy company itself.
I notice Eldorado gold EGO has 19 million ounces of proven gold reserves. You are not betting on how much money EGO is making today or tomorrow, you are betting on what the reserves will be worth with gold at successive higher levels of 1900 2100 2300 etc if costs stay the same at 1200 per ounce of extraction. They are trading at 1.2 times book since the gold price is only four hundred above the extraction cost and of course the media has everyone believing gold is going to tank below 1,000, so no value is ascribed to the company. I am just using EGO as an example.
For EGO if gold advances 100 dollars per ounce that is 100 x 19 000 000 = 1.9 billion dollar increase in reserves, good thing I have the Big Red Official Calculator of the National Debt with sixteen digits
IN contrast CEF Central Fund is still trading flat with no premium, a rare event. One can buy the gold and silver for just what it is worth. But there is no leverage as with the miners.
This post was prompted by an excellent inquiry from an alert reader of TMP, thanks!