Professor Elam

An Innovative Video

Wed February 22, 2012

I received this innovative video link from a CPA firm in New York State. Freed Maxick CPAs composed an innovative video and posted it on You Tube to promote their brand. Readers will note that just this week I mentioned using Bruce Howard's idea of developing your brand.

Speaking of which, I received this e mail by way of being named one of the Top 50 Accounting Blogs in the Country. Point is, this networking thing can pay off.

ProfessorElam Receives Recognition - Top 50!

Tuesday February 21, 2012

I pasted the notice below that this blog was noamed one of the Top 50 Accounting Blogs in the USA. We look forward to incorporating the mastersinaccounting logo on tis site. 

Since ProfessorElam began in September 2006, we have recorded this number of hits. 

75863

Lifetime Pageviews

38.37

Pageviews/Day

2537

Total Posts

2207

Total Comments

 

My name is Charles and I wanted to let you know that your blog was selected to our Top 50 Accounting Blogs at http://www.mastersinaccounting.info/ based on recommendations from other accounting blogs and because we think you have excellent content for people interested in accounting.

Here is our review of your blog:
"San Antonio A & M accounting students are the prime audience for this blog spiced with terms like siege mentality and chaos theory, but “Professor Elam” offers plenty of commentary with broad appeal, including the writing lessons illustrated by the best automotive writers, ethics exemplified in classic movies and headlines that demonstrate textbook accounting principles.”

We are an informational site for people interested in accounting careers and education. We feature useful resources like the top blogs, scholarship information, free online lectures, and career guides.

IFRS Anyone?

Tuesday Feb 21, 2012

Tucked away on page C 3 today in the WSJ is the revelation that, yes, the US nears adopting IFRS, well sort of. 

In the subdued manner  of tepid, lukewarm, one toe in one toe out doublespeak that only a Federal Govt Accountant can best muster, SEC Chief Acct James Kroeker suggests that  he and staff are

'gravitating to ward a middle ground endorsement proposal under which IFRS would be incorporated into US rules AND US rule makes would retain the authority to evaluate future global rules for the US.'

And you thought the prejorative MUSH was just for the Iditarod Dog Race.....

FED Writes Sweeping Rules

Tuesday February 21, 2012

I have asked both Intermed classes to post comments on the Dodd Frank legislation. It is linked im a recent post here to an Economist magazine article. This morning the front page of the WSJ carries the article

FED Writes Sweeping Rules From Behind Closed Doors.

The article notes that the FED has accelerated its rule writing, and increasingly done so out of public view. I suggest you locate and read the article as a follow up to Dodd Frank. 

Dodd Frank Disaster Looms

Monday February 20, 2012

Barney Frank and Chris Dodd  have passed the truly horredous Dodd Frank Finance Regulatory bill. Already big banks have laid off thousands of employees.Click the hyperlink to read what a tangled web has been created. 

Here is a J P Morgan depiction of this mess.

What's it LIke to Write a Non Fiction Book?

Sunday Feb 19, 2012

Once again, Kirk Tuck with the answer.

Develop Your Brand

Sunday February 19, 2012

Bruce Howard is Operatoins Director with FHK CPAs, is a good friend of TAMUSA and on our advisory board. He has made several visits to campus and delivered his fine talk on how to get your career in gear. One of his recommendations is to 'develop your own brand.'  He introduces that segment by holding up a can of, you guessed it, Coke, the world's most famous brand. 

One student on staurday fretted on her lack of seriousness at an earlier age. The result was poor grades the first two eyears of college, what to do now?  Bruce has good advice here. Develop your brand as a one who has seen the light and focused on becoming a Professional Accountant. 

We have numerous flourishing industries in San Antonio. Refineries like Valero, a burgeoning bio medical industry, a cyber security industry, transportation via truck and rail, retail is flourishing,  you name it. Pick one, study it, become an expert in it. Write your papers on that industry. Study the major players, follow their stock prices, p/es, management, learn it all. 

Develop your portfolio of expertise. Start a blog on it, take photographs, write papers...

 

Get in the water, it's the only way you can get wet.....develop your brand. That kind of expertise, and passing the exams the first time, trumps earlier academic indiscretions. And if that does not appeal to the first employer you encounter, there are lots of fish in the sea, kep prospecting for someone who appreciates your ability at self improvement. 

and if they don't simply remember the famous observation of Groucho Marx

"I would never belong to a club that would have me as a member!'

 

Death of a Salesman

Sat Feb 18, 2012

Arthur Miller's classic (now who was he married to.....) Death of a Salesman is playing at 

the Rose Theater. Yep right here in River City San Antonio for a mere $10-12. This is a deal on one of the all time classics of American Theater. 

 

College should include a reflection on who we are, were and want to become. Marketing majors, are you listening?

I would be very interested in hearing from  a group of students who attend this play. 

The New Medium and The Confession

Sat February 18, 2012

We are in the midst of a transition to new mediums of communication. Now you can rent movies on the internet. New networks are springing up

 

Hulu offers a variety of shows.

http://www.hulu.com/

Pajama TV offers right wing commentary with  a twist, I of course enjoy Kalavan on the Culture, a socionomic treat in my opinion

http://www.pjtv.com/

Oprah and Discovery since Oprah bought a previous Health oriented chanel have reportedly spent $250 M trying to get things right. LIke his philosophy or not, Glenn Beck, I would guess, has not spent one tenth that to being

GBTV

 

 

An example of a new show for this new medium is the HULU production of The Confession.. This iars in five to six minute segments for a total span of about a half hour. The reason I recommend this one is that you whould study just how tightly written the script really is. How do you pull your viewer in five minutes, lay out a story line, intro the characters, lead to a conclusion, and have the viewer wanting to come back for more?  Studying such tight scripting will make you a better writer. In Ethics today I mentioned that one head hunter goes through 150 resumes and interviews a year. What will you do to make an impression? Start learning by reading great short stories ( I recommend Jeffrey Deaver) or perhaps The confession.

 

Now college courses routinely require papers. I can envision videos, power points with music, and other media becoming mainstream. I mean how recent is it that accounting professors began blogging?

Get on board the new media. 

Long Term Indicators, Short Term Oriented Investors

Friday  Feb 17, 2012

A reader asks  if this is the top or if we are experiencing the breakout I discussed - toward and over 1370 taking the main indices to new highs. I would guess the latter, it looks like the markets want to go higher. 

TMP exited positions  last Friday,  earlier that week might have been better. GM popped yesterday. Rackspace RAX, a San Antonio based success tech story has also soared. This is typical of funds hunting for stocks that have not moved, and then, well, late in the cycle, moving them.

The question then is, should one still be playing this market, or if out, get back in. Before you call your croupier at Merrill or Schwab, consider this

SPX Bullish Percent of stocks over respective Moving Averages

Indicator            %

50                    84.2%

150                   87.4

200                    82.8

Now consider that in the last two years of trading the 50 day MA has only managed to get over 90% three times, and then it stayed there for, about a week. Wow!  (New readers, this is TMP being sarcastic.)

Our point is that this is not a low risk entry point. Oh, conversely the same indicator ony dropped below 10% on two occasions, the summer of 2010 and August 2011. We recommended buying both times and were well rewarded. So the market does not linger long at either extreme. Social mod reaches an extreme at both points. Sue Herrera on CNBC was positively ebullient yesterday announcing the stock advances. No doubt CNBC's ad income advances at such times. If we could get that indicator it might make a fine reverse indicator. Sell at advertising extremes and buy at advertising lows...

Moving right along the NYSE Summation Index weekly basis is the highest it has been in the last two years zooming from the August low of -600 to a new two year record of 1281.47.  It did record one higher high just below 1500 in late 2009. So we know that optimism is at a positive extreme. We know that there is very little left for BP to statistically move higher. We know that NYSI  has already done so, moved to historic highs. 

Tell you what, let's go all the way back to the top in March 2000 and see what this indicator tell us. 

NYSI Summation Index Monthly

Ulysses had is crew tie him  to the mast to hear the Sirens but be restrained from leaving the safety of the boat. If you listen to bloomberg or CNBC or Fox Business today, do likewise, do nto leave the safety of CASH. 

I can only count four times since the March 2000 top that NYSI topped 1250. So, we may have a higher high in the popular indices in February March or April. I don't know and neither does Jim Cramer. But we can know one thing with a high probability. Once the eventual high is in, we can expect a dramatic sell off. As Mark Hulbert points out, insiders are selling, not buying, Hulbert predicted lower prices ahead. 

If this analysis is correct we should be able to verify it perhaps with an indicator functioning in the opposite direction, How about the Dollar?

UUP the Dollar

The zig zag indicator on the monthly UUP chart is also an indicator. It is inversely correlated to stocks, oil and gold. I believe it hit an important low last year. It has made significant higher lows since. The brief pullback, remember this is a monthly, this month has allowed stocks to move higher, luring small investors back in the market at the worst time. 

 

Daily UUP

The recent pattern of higher lows in UUP is more clear on this daily chart. 

At bottom we ran the correlation coefficient with the SPX. As one can see the UUP has a very very high inverse correlation. The Coefficient  is in black and the SPX in blue. 

While not precise in the timing sense social mood indicators of flaunting wealth with McMansions, emergence of exotic car offerings like the Aston 1-77, and even the President's high approval rating all point to a coming peak in social mood, and stock prices. 

We have had two big drops in stocks in the last decade. A third much more severe drop lies ahead. This can be verified by examing 1930-48 or 1966-84. 

The preferred strategy is to wait forinternal indicators to peak.  TLT still needs to drop, the VIX has already hit new lows, the dollar is pulling back from its 50 day MA but that will not last long. 

So, using the same indicators that got us 

longs stocks late summer 2010

long TLT early 2011

long stocks August and October 2011

out of stocks last week

should serve us well now. 

Turn the sound down on CNBC  and just watch Jim Cramer, he is hitting new highs just like the NYSI. 

More this weekend.