Forbes Magazine in my opinion has morphed into sort of a cross between Vanity Fair, Town and Country, and Esquire. Which is to say it is not the business journal it used to be. The columnists however remain some of the best. Steve takes on Greenspan and yes, after being haied as a Maestro, amid the housing mess many are now questioning Greenspan's judgement. Steve's column is a fine analysis of how we got where we are with too many houses, $900 gold, and $100+ oil.
Did anyone notice that Mr. Leisure Suit in Iran said oil is too cheap at $115?
Could $6 gas be a reality in the near future professor Elam?
Posted by: Phillip | April 23, 2008 at 08:38 PM
$6 gasoline
Mr. Leisure Suit, the President of Iran says oil is too cheap. However, the run up in price in 1980 was legitimaely cuased by an embargo resulting in a shortage. This time there is no shortage. The Port of Houston has ships lines up at the docks bringing the stuff in. So why the high price? Speculation is blamed on the higher prices. But at some point as you say gas prices get to be a drag on the rest of the economy. IF gas prices are so high that no one drives to the store to shop or eat out, which has been the case given the poor performance of the retail stocks, demand will start to soften for gasoline. Truckers and airlines are already hard pressed which suggest we should be within some sort of topping out price target for fuel. Notably goverenments have not come off their demands for gasoline taxes one little bit.
We are in uncharted territory for price on gasoline, the best estimate there is, chart in vertical postiion, further analysis not possible. However, fundamentally, it broke four airlines this month and the head of the Teamsters has taken to the ariwaves to complain. When shipments of food don't get to the store I guess we hit the brick wall of price inelasticity for fuel.
But let Iran rattle a few sabers, the Syrian nuclear plant destruction is on tv as I write this, so we could still see another price spike this summer.
dle
Posted by: Dennis Elam | April 25, 2008 at 09:43 AM
"Speculation is blamed on the higher prices"
I wonder if you could explain this concept further, for myself and for your students. How does the price of Oil get set? Is the Dollar's value the only thing driving up the price of oil?
Posted by: phillip | April 25, 2008 at 03:22 PM
Godo question. I will put up a post on it.
DLE
Posted by: Dennis Elam | April 25, 2008 at 05:25 PM
If you guys think we are paying high prices in the U.S. check out how much they are paying in Sierra Leone and Norway!Very alarming!
Posted by: Stahili Muhammad | May 03, 2008 at 08:19 PM