The Market Perspective

Markets at Important Juncture

Weekend January 12, 2019

 

Stocks have re traced 50% of the entire fall from Oct 3.  Has this been a vigorous counter trend rally or is it safe to go long again?

This next week wil likely tell the tale.

Hedge Fund A Bear Fund

The two hour chart fell with the 2,000 point rally from December 24. It has returned to a slight up trend line.

NYSE

NYSE completed an A B C rally to the  38% level. PMO at bottom could top here.

Russell 2000

The Russell index of small stocks has rallied right to its 50 day MA.Many of he indexes look like this.

Bullish Percent  150 day MA

 

This indicator could repeat its failure at the end of November by not crossing the downtrend line. is it is we have lower highs and lower lows.

 

MNYSE Advance Decline

 

Our most reliable indicator has rallied in classic bear market fashion but could very wellfail at this downtrend line.

A Preference for Bonds Over Stocks?

 

The last two weeks of stock rally pulled this ratio chart down.But the MAs are all moving up. For now investors are liking bonds over stocks.

Gold

An article in the WSJ headlines Gold is Headed for $1,300!  Nothing like that was being said at $1,180 in August.The indicators suggest other wisse. A re test of teh 200 day MA at 1254 looks likely  Gold is overdone short term.  This should set up a nice point to buy in the next month or so.

 

Silver

 

Maximum mood occurs at the end of a move, note the recent sharp rise as the public rushes to buy at the top.

Silver is likewise overdone short term. a re test of the break out at 15.00 could occur here with a buying set up.

DZZ is a short gold fund and might be worth buying some shares here.

More posting later.

 

 

Okay Despite all the Headlines, the Markets are back to Last Thursday

Thursday Dec 27, 2018

 

The two hour chart does look like this is the start of a  relief rally  after the Nov Dec decline.

 

PMO at bottom and On Balance Volume at top both appear to have bottomed and are turning up.

At the same time GLD has rallied and looks very toppy short term to me.

And the US Dollar strengthened so gold is pulling back a bit on that as well.

Silver took off yesterday, did anyone notice?

Silver has apparently finally made a bottom while gold rose to a new high.

I have illustrated the extreme number of new lows in the last few posts even suggesting a look at the new lows in the WSJ was a great indicator.

New highs versus new lows finally made a bottom  Wednesday. Social Mood switched and the market rallied.

NYSE Advance Decline Daily

MACD and RSI have reached extremes to generate a low and probable reversal.

Among the economy ETFs I would suggest XLF Financials and XRT Retail, both have been beaten up.

And now that the FAANG stocks have been beaten down, how about SOCL global social Media ETF?

Bottom Line

I suspect we are still in bear markets for stocks and energy.  The extreme over sold condition should generate a counter trend rally in equities and energy in to mid January. But frankly that is about all I am expecting. This same period should see silver finally holding above its 14-15 level so it can join gold in a rally for  2019. Wheaton WPM and Kirkland Lake KL both had intra day reversals at  new high price area yesterday also suggesting some correction ahead in the mining stocks.

Energy I suspect is just bouncing off a lower level.  Don't get too optimistic that the worst is over for energy.

The big rally of  1,000 points got the 30 minute charts over bought, DJIA down 400 in pre market this Thursday morning so let things cool a bit and watch 30 minute and hour charts for best entry.

Dollar Completing Five Waves

Wed Nov 14 2018

 

Gold and oil are bottoming as the US Dollar completes a fifth wave of five to make a top. Sure enough the media are agog over the strong dollar but that makes a market top.

 

This is a textbook five wave pattern.

 

Gold is taking longer to bottom than I thought but it is happening. This should be a pullback before a more spirited advance begins, watch the chart of UUP.

 

Ratio chart of gold to the US Dollar via UUP

 

This chart falls when the USD is out performing gold. It rises when gold outperforms the USD. One can see the bottom was recorded in August.  The ratio is making a higher low now.

Patience.

Social Mood Taking Negative Turn, Transports, RUT not Confirming DJIA

Weekend November 10, 2018

I am sending much better lawyers to expose the FRAUD (in Florida)

Trump on Twitter regarding Florida recount

I took a yellow highlighter to various articles in the Weekend WSJ, here are a few snippets

 

Florida repeats the heated 2000 election results

White House Tensionis  Grow over China

Gab to Reign in Calls for Violence

Trump Calls NMacron Comments Insultijhng ahead of Meeting

Trump Fires Sessions

Britain struggles with Knife Attacks

The Blue Wave Breaks Gently

America Could Use Some Deals

Eurozone's 19th Nervous Breakdown

 

All told social mood is trending negative world wide and it shows in the markets.  The New Civil War we have discussed so many times has taken on a renewed vigor.

While Nancy and Steny are no doubt savoring new found power again, they may be surprised at the community organizing efforts of the new Congressional Members. Look for an unforseen bid for power in the Dem ranks.

 

DJIA versus Transports

Dow Theory dictates that both indexes need to make new highs or lows to confirm a move in one direction.

But the Transports in purple are not confirming the move up in the Industrials

Note the downturn in the Transports in fact right at the DJIA 200 bar MA.

Russell 2000

The small cap Russell  2000 looks strikingly similar to the purple Transports above. Notice RUT did not even get close to challenging the  200 bar red MA, and the shortest MAs are already turning down.

%  Above 200 day MA

This indicator is hesitating right at the 52.5% level. And it is nowhere close to its Sept peak. 

I believe evidence is building that a market top of some significance has occurred.

TLT Bond Prices not Recovering

There was no rush to safety in bonds during the October sell off. This is another reason to doubt that the markets are AOK now.

Weekly TLT

The more important weekly chart looks worse. Price is well under all the MAS and the MAs are converging and about to turn down, the typical way trends change.

US Dollar

The USD is between 50 and 61.8% re tracement which suggests a top might well occur in the near future.

Gold via GLD to see 2 hour chart

The strong dollar beat gold down but it is still in an uptrend. I am still bullish on gold.

Crude Oil

Bullish Percent Energy

BPENER got whacked with the stock sell off just as it did last February. It has rebounded to those February lows which are now some resistance.

XLE versus XES in purple

Here is a graphic of what I mentioned in the column posted Friday. Energy Service in Purple is not confirming any recovery in XLE Energy producers. And XES has been falling since April. Somehow the market senses what might happen.

 

Crude Oil

Crude oil weekly has fallen below its 34 Exponential MA. And PMO shows no signs of bottoming

Did anyone notice the article about OPEC dissolving with the Saudis and Russia going it alone?  No doubt that would result in a production free for all, not that OPEC ever regulated anything anyway. No wonder price is falling just as in  2014.

Bottom Line

Evidence builds that a significant stock market top has occurred. No recovery has ever lasted longer than the ten years this has been in force.

Interest rates are rising, bond prices falling, and numerous cities and states are in serious trouble with pension obligations.

Gold and  the XAU need to hold these levels and recover. Hopefully that will happen amid a US Dollar top.

Finally oil, gasoline and heating oil appear to have broken down. Oil has fallen the  20% necessary to call it a bear market.

 

dennislelam@gmail.com

The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or predictions.

 

 

 

 

 

New Highs

Weekend Sept 29, 2018

Tom McClellan discusses teh Hindenburg Omen

This signal was created by the late Jim Miekka, who was a mathematician and market analyst. He wanted to improve on Gerald Appel’s “Split Market Sell Signal”, which occurred whenever both NH and NL exceeded 45 on the same day. The adjustments which Miekka made accounted for the growth in the number of issues traded since the days when Appel first introduced that signal, and Miekka also added some other filtering criteria.

I regularly feature Tom's comments but this one is of particular interest. There has been a new record of HOs going all the way back to  1988.

There were 12 HOs just before the February mini crash. Now there have been 10 in September. We urge you to read and notice the chart Jesse Felder created going back to 1988 contained in Tom's update.

NYSE A D Line 10 Months

The ten month chart illustrates the sell and buy signal of last February.  Now this daily indicator is failing again, let's look up close.

NYSE A D Line Three months

This needs to improve qucickly. Recall that October is a prime month for market setbacks, 1929, 1987, top in Fall 2007.

This bears a close watch.

NYSE Index

While the DJIA and Transports have hit new highs the NYSE is lagging quite a bit.

5 Year Yield

Interest rates are on the rise and in a hurry.

 

Silver

Note the big 42 cent or 2.95% spike in silver Friday. Has this market finally seen a wash out and reversal?

West Texas Intermediate

WTIC keeps hitting resistance in the  1970s.

US Dollar

 

The US Dollar has yet to really break down. This is holding price advances in metals and crude oil priced in dollars.

The Bottom Line

We are in the dangerous seasonal part of the year for a stock market break down. Interest rates are headed higher. We are patiently waiting a resolution of the US Dollar to track the next move in metals ad oil.

Social Mood

The 44 minute response by Judge Kavanaugh shows just how far basic civility towards a judicial nominee has fallen.  While Dr. Ford could not remember anything but Cavanaugh's name,, not the place, date, how she got there or returned home. He is quite specific even to a  remarkable 982 calendar. No doubt Dr. Ford believes what she has to say but no one else she names is able to recall her version of the facts. Believe what you want about the two. But I lived through the 1973-74 Watergate breakdown with a similar attack in the media on a daily basis.The markets slowly tanked 50% in two years. Social mood is not in mere decline or tatters it is being torn apart like a Gladiator up against a lion in the Coliseum. The Dems overlooked far more serious behavior by Jack and Ted Kennedy, Gary Hart, Bill Clinton,  and John Edwards.  But this is a Republican.

 

While this sounds extreme, I noted one comment on this at the digital WSJ. The writer wondered if this was telegraphing the final end of the USA as a power.   The Dems have disregarded the concept of innocence until proven guilty. And all the Republicans are not for the Trump nominee either. As he notes, by the time this is done Judge Kavanaugh may not even be able to coach a girls' basketball team.

 

dennislelam@gmail.com

The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or predictions.

 

Stocks on a Tear, Dollar Weakens, Canada and Aussie currencies Stronger, Copper Firms

Weekend Sept 22 2018

We are monitoring the bottoming process in metals. Gold bottomed August 16.   Now commodity currencies of Canada and Australia appear to strengthen with the US Dollar falling. Copper firms, this is all part of the process. 

Australian Dollar

The action the last two days looks to be the strongest since the reversal in January. The currencies of commodity based economies like Australia and Canada need to firm indicating a shift to commodity based inflation.

 Copper

 

Notice the big move in copper. This metal is referred to as Dr. Copper given its economic importance.  I recall reading an article in the WSJ on how weak copper was which reflected on the commodity exporters in emerging market countries. It of course is typical to see such articles when any market bottoms.

Gold The Low was August 16

Such price action is referred to as an exhaustion move, all the sellers capitulate, the few bulls step in and start buying at the bottom in price.

 Mutual Fund

Most technical analysis books were written before the advent of personal computers. Now anyone with a discount broker account has access to programs like stockcharts. Most of the books need to be re written now that all are following the same  50 /200 day moving average charts. Notice here that price over shot the FIB 61.8% re tracement. No doubt there were sell stops at that level. I believe this Rydex fund bottomed just after the low in gold August 16.

EBAY

Ebay looks to be bottoming at the 50% re tracement level.  Notice MACD at is bottoming, see blue arrow.

Rio Doce

Here is an example of why one needs to be accumulating now Once the train leaves the station it is hard to find a good buy point. This firm is in the iron ore business.

GSG

Here is the break out on GSG. It is till cheap.

GSG Correction Complete

 

GSG completed five waves up into 2008. Notice the shape of the final fifth wave was parabolic which is an ending pattern. Following that we have had a nine year  correction which is ending now. The correction followed a textbook  A up B and then a final C wave down. The first of the next five waves up is occurring now. The Central Banks of the World have  engulfed the world with enough cash and borrowed money to fuel a  1970s type inflation all over again. 

 

Hm the top in inflation was 1981, ad a FIB 34 years and you get 2015-2016.  Notice that is exactly where wave C has ended in  2015 - 2016

Dollar Index Slowly Falling, Metals Hit 5th Wave Low

Weekend Sept 15  2018

The Dollar is slowly rolling over. Metals appear to be making a bottom.

Dollar versus Hecla HL

HL is in gold with the scale at left.  HL has collapsed from its 2011 high of  10.5 to under 3. It is trading below book value. 

 Long Term CEF

The point here is to show that silver via Central Fund is in a long term uptrend and has now returned to that uptrend line. 

The Thirty year Bond yield is back over 3%, rates bottomed in 2016 and have been rising

Goldman Sachs Commodity Fund

GSG bottomed in 2016 and continues to rise. Again this boosters the case for metals to advance.

Crude OIl Broadcasts the same picture. 

Should the rally return to the previous high most mutual funds of gold shares would triple from here.

If OPGSX returned to its 2011 high, it would be a bit more than a triple from here. If you have access to such funds in a retirement account this should be a good opportunity to accumulate shares. 

Central banks all over the world have flooded countries with currency. Emerging currencies are falling hard already, see my newspaper article in  the next post. An op ed in the weekly WSJ  on page A 15

Get Ready for the Next Financial Crisis

makes just that point.  The world has more debt out now than before the  2008 financial crisis.  Tesla bonds are now down to 84 cents on the dollar. Emerging country currency and stock prices are sagging. Some like Venezuela and Argentina, heck throw in Nicaragua and Bolivia are in crisis mode now not to mention Turkey and hey Greece is back in the headlines. So the clues are all here to see. 

Bottom Line

This is the time to accumulate commodity related investments. Look for an increase in inflation, interest rates, and metals prices. 

I was wrong that stocks were topping, they are still soaring.

 

Social Mood

Everyone owns Apple. Over half its net revenue comes from I Phone sales. The price of the cheapest latest model is like $799.Upscale models are near $1,000.  I own an LG MX 150 I bought at ATT for 80 bucks, case for  5 bucks on Amazon.

The FANG stocks have powered the NASD to what, 7500. Well swell, but I think the commodity play, beaten down as it is, offers far more upside potential and little downside risk. 

AMZN is trading at a 156 P/E.

 the forward P/E is a mere 77. Okay Bezos has finally been proven right but

I recall when Apple was trading for $600.Every talking head on CNBC was certain it was going to $1,000, just a question of how soon. It went to $400. 

In the 1970s it was the Nifty Fifty. Before that it was IBM. In the  1920s RCA. Now FANG.

When the crunch comes in those stocks there will not be time to get out. 

Woody Allen's first movie was titled

Take the Money and Run

If you are in a FANG stock that is what I would suggest. 

Best J R Ewing Roll the Dice Bet

JNUG

Should JNUG return to 130 it would have increased by 18x. Not for the faint of heart. This is a dramatic example of why Bob Prechter constructed the concept of endogenous social mood. When JNUG takes off, all will wonder why.But the truth is that the mood towards metals will have reversed. 

 

dennislelam@gmail.com

The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or predictions.

 

 

Dollar Topping, Metals Bottoming

Weekend August 26, 2018

Gold

UUP is the Dollar ETF in green. The red black bars are the price of gold.  I have been looking for a bottom in gold and the entire metals complex, iron, etc.  I suspect that occurred this past week. Friday was an outside reversal day for gold,  up $19.30.  No doubt that was a buy back of those short gold.

Silver and the Dollar

In similar fashion, silver also had an outside reversal day.

cliff Natural Resources CLF

CLF has been in an uptrend from a very over sold condition. Note MACD making a bottom in the lower panel.

Look at this next long term chart of get an idea of the potential in this trade.

CLF was trading at $90 in 2011. We have no way of knowing if that is a possibility but this looks like a lot more potential than the stock market near 26,000.

 Commodity Research Bureau Index

The ribbon of moving averages is converging for the CRB.That has to take place before a change in trend. This  looks like a great set up for a low risk entry betting on some inflation. Note the lead article in the WSJ is the new FED chair, Jerome, predicting higher rates.

 XLE Energy ETF

XLE is finishing its correction for the May high. Gold at bottom Dollar at top.

 

Godzilla Dollar Tramples Commodity and Currency Prices

Friday August  17, 2018

Godzilla Dollar Tramples Commodity and Currency Prices

Emerging markets stock are teetering on the edge of a bear market given the rising dollar and tariffs.

The price of imported oil in Turkey has risen 60% this year.

Wall Street Journal Friday August 17, 2018

Godzilla is a fictional pre-historic movie monster, awakened by nuclear radiation. Highly agitated, Godzilla proceeded to trample 1954 Tokyo.

In similar fashion the Trump has unleashed tariffs and a strong dollar with repercussions around the world.  

The Turkish ETF TUR has fallen from 46 to 19 this year recovering to 21.36. Emerging market EEM has dropped form 51 to 41.77. Copper is down from 3.30 to 2.62.   Gold is down from 1,360 to a new low for the year of 1,184.   Likewise, silver is down from 17.50 to 14.50. It is a wonder crude oil has only fallen to the mid 60s.

But let’s take a closer look at TUR.   Market tops take time to form as they happen amid positive social mood think, hey, this party will never end as with the dotcoms. Market bottoms however form from extreme negative mood, think, sell at any price I will never own this junk again! And so bottoms often take a parabolic drop accompanied by hysterically high volume. TUR fits that profile. Volume the last two days was 10x normal. Wednesday’s drop was 20% of its price. Thursday’ volume was 25 million shares. TUR has lost half its value since April 1.

But amid this gloom and doom, TUR recovered Thursday from 19to 21.36. Copper rebounded 2.2%.   The Dollar was down .8% against the Mexican peso and lost .6% versus the Korean won.

In short, amid massive negative social mood regarding beaten down markets, it is time to consider some contrarian ideas. Ten times normal TUR volume and a recovery suggests most of the sellers may have finally give up at the bottom.

Gold is down form 1,360 to 1,184. Silver reversed form its sub 14.50 low Thursday to close at 14.71. That certainly did not reverse the daily trend but is in line with reversals in TUR and copper. Mining shares have been clobbered with the XAU of gold and silver miners down from 92 in January to 64.27 Thursday .

I am not recommending buying any of these plays just yet, but it is time to pay close attention to potential bottoms in washed out shares that have been tossed on the Wall Street trash heap. That is how the March 2009 lows in the stock market were formed amid the worst sell-off in decades.

Looking Back at 2000, 2007

Weekend April 29

This might be an opportune time to examine the last two nine year peaks in stock indexes.

Year 2000 Peak

The Transports are the early warning. And I was surprised to learn that the Transports peaked around 3,700 in 1998, collapsed to 2,300, then rose to 3,800 in 1999 and then began a multi year sell off in to Oct 2001 and 2002.

The NDX and NASD had parabolic rise to around 5,000 and then collapased amid the dot.com fiasco.

NDX

 

SPX

This market lost about half its value in two years.

Year 2007-09

Transports

The Transports peaked early in 2007 and again in 2008 and then quickly collapsed more than 50%.

NDX

NDX was about a 60% collapse.

SPX

SPX peaked in Fall 2007 and then completely fell apart in the last half of 2008.

Today

Transports

All the indexes are amazingly still in a weekly uptrend.. Transports are still above all MAs.

NDX

NDX is still in an uptrend

SPX

Same here.

but I don't know that makes any of these markets a great buy either.

US Dollar

This is not a trend reversal, perhaps it is an oversold bounce as we saw last November. And we do not have a crossover of the MAs.  But this has pressured gold and energy.

Priced in dollars, energy has paused and gold pulled back a bit.

A this point there is not much else to say. Weakness in consumer staples suggests market problems.

PG

 

What's wrong with PG? One would think XLP would rally amidst a market correction.

Bottom Line is simply that I don't see any great opportunities this week.

Social Mood

The squeak by confirmation of Mike Pompeo is another new low in political discourse. The same is trued for Michelle Wolf's potty mouth remarks at the WH Correspondent dinner.

Even Harry Reid is warning to tamp down the impeachment talk.But I suspect it will only get worse, discourse wise into the election.

Hm, who pays for this WH Correspondent dinner I wonder?  Did we taxpayers?

 

dennislelam@gmail.com

The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or predictions.