Weekend Feb 14 2021
I have used this space to warn of rising interest rates. The lead editorial in the WSJ this weekend shows the national debt now equal to annual GDP. The last time this happened was WWII.
That was understandable. This is not. Team Biden is just beginning to spend money we don't have. Friday the long bond crossed the 2% threshold.
One can clearly see the spike low during the worst of the initial pandemic sell off as the DJIA hit 18,000. Rates have doubled from 1 to 2% since.
One of my friends said well 2% sounds low, it is but this is just the start of an up market in yields just at the summer of 1982 was the start of an up move in the DJIA from 800 to 31,000.
It is the trend that is important not the actual rate. And the trend in rates is up.
The way to play this is the ETF TBF.
Rates will rise much faster than they fell.
20 Year view
Note the V shaped reversal. Next target is 2.5% at the 87 month MA.
NYSE Summation Index
the summation index fell as the NYSE bottom panel rose, a non confirmation and divergence. Maybe it is emerging from a fourth wave whether it makes a new high may be telling.
Social Mood
Investors have been wildly positive to this point as evidenced by wild bets on Gamestock and TSLA. Elsewhere mood is trending negative.
Protests continue in Moscow.
The treatment of Mr. Navalny may have lit the fuse for protests, but the rallies quickly became an outlet for Russians’ widespread grievances about falling living standards, collapsing infrastructure and chronic corruption, and mark a tectonic shift in relations between ordinary citizens and the Kremlin.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/protests-go-beyond-navalny-as-putins-reserve-of-good-will-wanes-11613313541
Nancy is zero for two on impeachment and is on boil about it
https://news.sky.com/video/oh-these-cowardly-senators-nancy-pelosis-reaction-to-donald-trumps-impeachment-acquittal-12217612
Italy has a new government what else is new
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/mario-draghi-forms-new-government-italy-politicians-technocrats-named-ministers-n1257670
And Revenge on Trump has not stopped, now the AG of Georgia wants to prosecute him
https://dnyuz.com/2021/02/13/in-georgia-a-new-district-attorney-starts-circling-trump-and-his-allies/
Apparently she has murder, burglary, car theft all under control in GA
Let's watch the summation index this week.