The Market Perspective

CEF Trading at 5% discount lto NAV

Thursday  Aug 17 2023

.Check out Tom McClellan's take on the CEF discount

Perspective on Silver

Wed May 24 2023

 

Here’s What Silver Investors Need to Know
Large Speculators have been making this bet on silver

By Elliott Wave International

Observations over the years reveal that hedge fund managers tend to extrapolate current trends of financial markets into the future -- just like most Main Street investors.

In other words, hedge fund managers are just as much a part of the "crowd" as the little guy.

So, this 2021 headline from the American Enterprise Institute is not surprising:

The SP 500 Index Out-performed Hedge Funds over the Last 10 Years. And It Wasn't Even Close

Hedge funds and trend followers are known as Large Speculators in the Commitment of Traders report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They usually take the opposite side of the trade from a group known as the Commercials; insiders who participate in a business related to a given commodity. The Commercials usually turn out to be on the right side of a trade.

With this in mind, let's focus on silver. Here's a chart and commentary from our May 15 U.S. Short Term Update:

Large Specs... are strongly betting that [Silver]'s rally will continue. The middle graph on the chart shows the Large Spec net long or net short position as a percentage of total non-spreading open interest. Two weeks ago, it was 23.49%. Last week, despite a 9% decline in silver prices over just five days, Large Specs are net long 23.14%, hardly budging from their prior stance... We will keep you apprised of new developments.

The U.S. Short Term Update makes clear that Commitment of Traders positions are not a great short-term timing tool. At the same time, be aware that extreme positions often occur at key trend turns.

Also keep in mind that silver's Elliott wave structure can help you to anticipate price turns.

Indeed, here’s a quote from the Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

It is our practice to try to determine in advance where the next move will likely take the market. One advantage of setting a target is that it gives a sort of backdrop against which to monitor the market’s actual path. This way, you are alerted quickly when something is wrong and can shift your interpretation to a more appropriate one if the market does not do what you expect. The second advantage of choosing a target well in advance is that it prepares you psychologically for buying when others are selling out in despair, and selling when others are buying confidently in a euphoric environment.

No matter what your convictions, it pays never to take your eyes off what is happening in the wave structure in real time. Ultimately, the market is the message, and a change in behavior can dictate a change in outlook. All one really needs to know at the time is whether to be long, short or out, a decision that can sometimes be made with a swift glance at a chart and other times only after painstaking work.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of the book, you may do so for free once you join Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

A Club EWI membership is also free and members enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave resources on investing and trading.

Get started now by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior – get free access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Here’s What Silver Investors Need to Know. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

 

Change is in the Air

Friday Nov 4 2022

 

this is Friday night very significant. I have been reading that this would be a significat low for silver,andnow oil

 

more this weekend stay tuned

 

Gold and

Thursday Did not Move the Needle

Weekend Oct 16, 2022

the hundreds of points Thursday Friday sounds impressive but on the chart not so much. We would need weekly loses over 31,000 to turn the weekly trend up.

Bonds are falling with stocks, gold and real estate

Silver

the expected rally in gold and silver has not occurred, a break of the Sept low  will bring much lower prices in silver\

Gold

 

ditto, a break of rhe Sept low will bring much lower prices

Real estate is well into its own bear market

 

Strong Bear Market Rally

Tuesday Oct  4 2022

Wow, 1400 points in a couple of days, but on the chart not so impressive, 2 hour version. I am guessing 31,500.

Oil is looking better as are silver and gold.

Bear Market Rally

Tuesday Oct 4 2022

Bear market rallies are strong and short lived. They convince the crowd the bear is over and it is safe to invest again.

The market is now in C Wave up.

Not sure it can go to 31,.00 the last high but should last another week or two into mid October.

Silver is having a good showing.

Metals Collapse

Thursday Sept 15 2022

In a bear market all news is bearish

Now stocks, bonds and metal prices are all collapsing, oh did I mention oil prices as well?

My friends at EWI SI have a website

https://deflation.com/

 

While many are worried about inflation, as noted above, the  price of financial instruments is collapsing.

The worst of all worlds will be collapsing stocks bonds oil while food prices soar

/silver and gold are now working out but may see a final burst up in the next three days, I am done with silver and gold

 

Silver Stocks Fill Gap, Stocks Begin Third Wave Down

Wed Sept 14, 2022

CDE and silver filled a gap left form teh b  ig move up Monday.

the big move up Moday saw CDE and other silver shares pull back to fill the gap created by the full dollar move up, Trend still appears up.

In stocks wave three of three gets underway

this five wave move could extend into October, half of Sept is already past. This will have an effect on the mid term elections.

Biden's Press Secy may not follow the stock market but millions of 401K holders do.

Mortgage rates quickly ran up over 6%, that too will be noticed.

Silver Shines, Stocks begin a Third Wave Down

tuesday Sept 13, 2022

Silver finally took off yesterday  advancing 5.82% just over a dollar. /first Target is the old high under $21 in August.  But I am thinking this may be  along term low for silver.  Currencies are in trouble around the world. See the WSJ article today on US innovation driving the strong dollar.

we have been warning a bear market is unfolding. This dates back to 1788, a Fibonacci number of  233 years.  We noted the collapse in FB and NFLX suggesting the entire market could fall that far as well. That prediction is now coming true.

I annotated this pre-market graph of the INDU to date this year at  7 555 AM CST.

Elliott Waves work well when the mood is strong as it is now.  Wave One was 7,000 points down. If One is  61.8% of Wave Three, Three will extend

7,000 / .618 = 11, 326. 34,000 - 11, 326 = 22,674.

I drew a horizontal red line at that level, and sure enough there is some past support there.

The 125 bar MA on the monthly chart is at that level now.  The media claims the Dems are llooking better in the polls prior to mid terms. This is what they always say.  No one in the media is noticing the unfolding bear market. The bull market helped Trump.  The Bear market will not help the Dems as all examine their reduced 401Ks

A Confirmed Low in Silver, Finally, Stocks Rally

Wed Sept 7 2022

Silver finally found its low and rallied today.  October silver rallied 35 cents or 2%l

I recommended CDE and it jumped8.24% today. HL jumped 5.48%. I will be adding positions.

/expect stocks to rally but I doubt past 4025. the top of this stock rally will set up Wave Three Down which will be huge.

Crude oil finally hit my target in the low 80s. Interesting in that energy bills in the UK are expected to increase 80%.