6/7/2025
TOm McClellan sees a recession starting by February 2026 if not sooner
The inverted yield curve, the 30 month Bill is pays more than the ten year note, has reliably predicted past recessions. Tom examines the details and concludes between now and Feb 2026 it will happen. That fits well with my view that the markets are topping. The weighted averages reach higher while the equal weights do not, see our article posted Friday.
And T bonds took a 1 10/16 dive Friday. In March 1987 bond prices peaked. Bond prices then fell dramatically into the fall. Back then bond trading ceased at 2 00 PM CST. Stocks would then rally. By October stocks were payuing too little in regard to bond yields. It all got re arranged one Monday that October with a 20% crash in stocks. It didn't last long. It was a Fib 5 years from the start of the stock rally in 1982.
SPX is purple, thirty year bond is black
chart not posting will tray again later
And silver has finally taken off,now gold and silver are rising together.
Take this all together. Bond prices falling, interest rates rising as the market demands more return for financing the ever increasing US debt.
Gold and silver rise together, pople are buying real money.
Yet the stock market ignores this for weighted averages. The equal weight averages are not going higher.
Jamie Dimon says there will be a reckoning. It may take six months or six years. My guess is that the six months window is more accurate.
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