3/11/2025
Industrials are over sold but RSI and PMO have yet to bottom. While the media blames Trump and tariffs, yes that is a qualitative reason but it just validates the five waves up are done going way back to 1932. Business news is moving from screaming buy (Charles Payne last Thursday) to 15-20% sell off. Industrials are down 4,000 points about 8.8%. NDX is down 13.6% already.
This is a repeat of the dot.com March 2000 sell off and the sub prime in 2007.
March and June bonds sold off 31/32 today. TBF is a bear fund that rises as bond prices fall.
TBF has filled in the gap from around Feb 23 and is turning up.
TLT a bond fund is the exact opposite. I rarely recommend an option play but June puts on TLT look attractive.
Crude oil struggles to find a bottom, short covering in energy service, so not sure if we have a low in oil yet.
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