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The Great Depression

  • Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary

    Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
    It's all here, times change people don't -the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector -the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out -Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then highly recommended

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June 28, 2024

A Big Sign of Complacency

Friday June 28 2024

Here is an interesting sign of complacency. It is the ratio chart of the SPX to the VIX fear index. the ratio is low when fear is high and very high when, well, no one is worried.

Here is a recent chart. I left this full size for emphasis.  This chart takes fear from the end of the  12007 - 2024   mortgage panic with a low of  25 to a multi year high of 275. that high

was taken out in the Magnificent Seven rally culminating in NVDA being worth more than the value of the UK France and German stock markets.

Screenshot 2024-06-28 at 2.54.14 PM
Okay how about a longer perspective?

Screenshot 2024-06-28 at 3.27.30 PM

the left most arrow is the top of the dot.com mania. The middle arrow is the top of the sub prime mania. the third arrow is prior to the COVID crash.  the current level is about 6X the dot.com high  which was  a mania indeed at the time. Subsequently the NASD lost  75% of its value in two years.

 

Posted at 04:41 PM in Stock Market |

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