Markets at Major Trend Change

Wed 4/3/2024

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Metals and oil are at or near the completion of the first move up. Above SLV displays from the mid Feb low wave one up, then two down then three up, four sideways to down and now

a vigorous fifth wave u[. Maximum mood occurs at the end of a wave and that is seen here. A pullback should be contained at the wave four low 22.25-22.50.

DG Ulta Oil and Gas Shares

The pullbacks here are hard to see as this is

a leveraged play on oil and gas shares But MACD at bottom looks toppy. RSI at top is way over bought and above the  70% level. 44 looks like a pullback target.

I have hesitated to recommend more buys since the initial entry as the rally has been so strong. The period between now and mid month, April 15 shoud provide our best added buy.

I believe this is all a replay of the  1973-74 era if not that entire decade. The first oil embargo in  1973-4 kicked things off. Oil rose to $9 by 19778  and then a second embargo took it to  $36 by  1981. That was also the  39 year peak in interest rates.

The world is awash in debt. All the debt taken on at historic low rates will now roll over at higher rates. The US interest is already more than the Defense budget. Gold and silver are still the only real money politicians cannot print from trees. The action in SLV is a sign of things to come.

SPX

The SPX gapped up March  21. Since the top last Friday at 5260, it gapped down in roughly the same price range. The rally today filled the gap, and then quickly reversed.

My working assumption is that the highs seen last wee on DJIA SPX NDX are final highs dating to major lows of  1932 1987 2002 2009.

Long term since  2009

Five waves complete. MACD and RSI peak with strongest third wave.  Distance from MAs is maximized. This is text book stuff, also note MACD histogram at bottom is maxed out.

Hedge a bear fund, long term

Hedge is the converse of SPX and dirt cheap at $20.

Short term Hedge moves opposite SPX.

Market are at extreme long term trend change. But the extremes are plain to see.

Look to add at lows into mid month we will be updating.