2/3/2024
STOCK MARKET
My friends at EWI have been looking for THE TOP the last few weeks, Today might qualify as that reversal.
I suggested Feb 11 that the market would pull back for a week or two and then blow off into March.
Today SPX lost 1.37%, not huge but NASD was down more.Look for a bounce tomorrow and then further decline. I am thinking this will bring the buy the dip crowd. The fifth wave I show is awfully short only 200 points. It did break the PAR SAR. Notice there was also a sell signal at the end of January and then the rally resumed. Seasonally we have the Oct low and then a rally, this usually lasts longer than mid February, so keep the short powder dry
BOND MARKET INTEREST RATES
Yields soared on the CPI data, I thought the idea the FED would lower rates already was absurd and the markets said so today.
TBF advances when rates increase and bond prices fall, let's take a look tomorrow, it gaped up today.\
GOLD
GLD paper gold fell down today but not the end of the world, yet. It jumped in this price range in mid December.
Gold soared during teh inflation of the 1970s, peaking in 1981 at the top of the commodity boom. Then we had the highest interest rates ever, now a bump in rates and gold prices fall.
So go figure, never a good idea to take new positions on a skewed day, let's see what happens tomorrow.
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil, the ultimate commodity indicator
Crude oil made a top in 1981 along with interest rate.Now rates are rising and crude oil is doing the same. This is the March 2024 crude futures chart.
It demonstrates a pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Today it advanced again. . The correction has ended, full speed ahead, notice a big merger in the Permian Basin was announced t oday, no coincidence.
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