Weekend January 22, 2023
SPX
Again all major stock indexes topped between Nov 2021 and january 2022/ Since then waves of varying degree have just touched the same trend line, which is down, and reversed again
Yet in the news media one does not see the term bear market. Rather one sees, just becuase 60 stocks 40 bonds had one of the worst years in decades, don't give up on it. I think even more decline lies ahead, my eventual target is the 200 month MA/\.
Here is the long term view on a monthly chart. Notice RSI t top and PMO at bottom, PMO esp, have both turned down. remember this is a monthly chart, such turns are rare. We have not visited the 200 month MA since the 2007-2009 melltdown. The 200 MA is currently 2161 about half or 54%, of where we are now.
SPX has already fallen 21% from its 221 high but the public is buying stocks like it was 1984.
I expect the downtrend to resume in stocks. IF so that may at least support a siideways move in bonds until the FED or the market starts racheting rates up again.
BLE one of our closed end munis has performed very well, wonderingiif a stock sell off will attract even more money to this sector.
Is 11.60 out of the question? We shall see. I am considering easing into TBF a bear bon fund as a hedge.
TBF bouncing off its 200 day MA
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