Weekend Aug 13 2022
Stocks continue their wave 2 rally. the reliable NYSE Advance Decline is in vertical position from its oversold June low.
Industrials Weekly
The next last high is just under 35,000. That would exceed a 61.8% re tracement but this is quite a celebration of a top in the markets so let's not rule that out. And it is only about 1,000 points from here. With multiple hundred point days this is quite possible.
NASD % over 50 day MA
One headline says the NASD has re entered a bull market by jumping 20%. I am not so sure of that though the move up is certainly broad based.
NASD Weekly
This could easily stretch into September as we are half way thru August already.
Crude Oil
I rthought oil would drop to the mid 80s. Sept 2023 is trading at 83.91. This is known as backwardation.But Russia is putting the full court press on Europe with only 20% of its oil being sent. Now nuclear problems listed in the weekend WSJ are supporting energy prices. And I see articles that the British, Russian, and Chinese economies are weakening.
Bonds and stocks have been tracking one another in the same direction since topping last fall.
Daily 30 Year Bond
Looks like Wave A is complete and Wave B underway. I expect the rally in stocks and bonds to last into mid September before a larger third wave down begins.
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