Weekend June 11, 2022
Even after two big down days, the PMO for this indicator has not rolled over! Third waves can go as far as they like.
Most investors are still in the buy the dip mental mode. As noted the percent decrease in NASD is much worse than SPX, the bloom is off the tech rose.
NASD this 3.5% drop in one day looks like it is just getting started
how ever we count this, the extreme collapse can only be a three of three wave. Of course the media cites the 78.6% CPI number but that was hardly unexpected.
A WSJ article remarked on the enthusiasm for the big rally in ARKK 35-45, those same headlines will appear all the way to the bottom wherever that eventually may be
the so called rally just relieved the quite over sold condition of PMO at bottom.
Junk bonds like HYT will suffer the most.
and indeed Hedge, a bear fund which advances as stocks decline is just getting going again
Just for fun
Tony Parker is an 18 year veteran and multiple national NBA champion here retired from the SA Spurs.
He is showing his Hero and Villain collection at the SA Art Museum.
https://www.samuseum.org/artwork/exhibition/tony-parkers-heroes-and-villains/
Super heroes are a socionomic event, here is an update on their history from yours truly
Tony Parker’s Heroes Arrives Right on Time
San Antonio Spurs basketball star Tony Parker’s Heroes and Villains collection arrives right on time. It will be on display at the San Antonio Museum of Art until September 4. T is a film buff and has a collection of sci-fi and Super Hero sculptures from Harry Potter, Star Wars, and the Marvel Comics. Let’s take a look at how and why this exhibit arrives at an ideal juncture of social mood generating social action.
While history records super dating back to Hercules and Beowulf, the modern incarnation began in various forms in the early 1900s. Zorro appeared in 1919, Buck Rogers in 1928, the Shadow in 1936, and Flash Gordon in 1934. Olympic swimmer buster Crabbe portrayed Flash in a movie serial form in the 1930s.
The stock market made a remarkable recovery from its 1932 low of 41 to a 1937 high of 188. The continued failed attempts to conquer the Depression led to the creation of new Super Heroes.
Superman appeared in Marvel comics in 1938. He was followed by Captain Marvel in 1939 as well as Batman. Superman had Super Hero characteristics such as the ability to fly and a literal bullet-proof skin. Batman however would rely on his athletic prowess as well as a great collection of whatever accessory on his utility belt the current crisis required.
Adolf Hitler came to power near the exact low of the Depression, negative mood created the ultimate negative event. Even more Super Heroes were created to oppose the evils of the Axis Powers. Flash, Green Lantern, and Captain America quickly followed.
Our point is that seemingly impossible situations, Depression and WW II, resulted in the creation of Super Human Heroes. How does that link to Tony’s display at the SA Museum of Art?
My take is that we are already experiencing a bear market in stock prices. The seemingly unstoppable NASD has fallen 25% just since last November. Netflix (what could go wrong?) has lost 71% from its top value of 700. The FANG stocks look like a dot.com echo. Add to that the Ukraine conflict, high gasoline and food prices, baby formula shortages and random violence.
And so as in 1938, we have an interest in the recent history of the revival of Marvel Super Heroes as well as other movie favorites. Social mood dictates social action. The mood is exactly right for a re-emergence of Super Heroes. Even more fitting is Tony’s Super Star Status as a multiple national NBA champion team.
Thanks Tony, just what we need at just the right time.
Dennis Elam is an Associate Professor in the College of Business at Texas A & M University San Antonio.
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