Tuesday Jan 4, 2022
Jerome Powell FED Chair actually thinks he sets interest rates. Well then explain to Jerome that the ten-year note rate increased yesterday and today without asking his permission.
Ten Year Yield
Note the gap up today, rates are soaring from all time lows. Bond prices move inversely or opposite yields so there is the note performance.
A Backstone analyst today suggested the ten year yield would go to 2.75 in 2022 and the FED would have four increases, assuming a quarter point each.
I'd say that is a very conservative forecast considering the yield just went from 1.3 to 1.65 in one month!
Ten Year Note
IN two days the market erased a few weeks of price advance. The reasons are not the meat prices cited by Biden, rather the meat prices are advancing due to
huge increase in money supply
huge purchases of debt by the FED which cause number one above to expand
huge injection of money by Dem Congress which we did not need
jump in prices of oil due to excessive regulation and war on energy industry
TBF Bear Bond fund betting on lower bond prices
As you can see this duplicates the first chart of the rise in rates.
What it the long term potential profit in TBF, look at TBF back to inception when the ten year rate was around 4%
At that point the price was $50 or three times today's price. And the better news is that rates rise faster than they fall, again see daily chart above.
Here is another long term hold, GSG the Goldman Commodity Index Trust on the NYSE
NUstar is on fire and pays a great dividend
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