Wed Dec 1 2021
ON Tuesday the WSJ had a piece announcing oil prices had stabilized after the % 10 Friday drop and then bouncing $3 Monday.
Yet prices fell again on Tuesday.
Price is now 66.19 below the 200 day MA at 69.80. This certainly reverses the daily trend.
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
This index is represents many commodities and it is dropping fast again reversing a daily trend.
Powell is behind the curve just now dropping his transitory reference to inflation.
Thinking is that new travel restrictions will cut the demand for oil. Perhaps but this is also suggesting a world slowdown in overall consumption.
SPX
Outside of Elliott Wave no one is suggesting the bull market in stocks is ending. By the time they do, it will have dropped 20% or so, the official designation of bear market. This will not all happen at once to all indexes. We might yet see new highs or a double top in NDX, Tesla has hardly budged the last few days.
New York Stock Exchange
This is a far broader index than the 500 SPX.
NASD Percernt of Stocks Over 50 Day MA
We noted this peaked way back in February. The percentage has fallen from 85 to 25. This demonstrates what we mean by a collapse of breadth, a broad range of stocks participating in the rally. And of course this has been the 'hottest' index.
Lower highs occurred throughout the year, a bear market trait.
NYSE Advance Decline
I drew the blue 'support' line sometime back, it is now being tested.
NASD New Lows
this is so extreme it suggests we may be nearing a low.
And here is the converse, new highs which clearly peaked Nov 8 along with other indexes making a high on that date.
Now here is the composite of the two, New High versus New Low
What a reversal from Nov 8!
These extremes suggest we may have seen the extreme low in some indexes this week or will see them soon.
INDU is up 300 on globex at 6 15 AM CST this morning.
Stay tuned.
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