Weekend May 15, 2021
A friend is rebuilding an older home, he reports that the price of everything from lumber to copper is soaring. This is another reason existing home prices are soaring, the value of materials in the already completed home are worth more than it appears. Commodity prices peaked in 2009 when crude oil soared to $145 and then collapsed to $35 six months later. Now some twenty years later, prices bottomed March 202. Notice the graph has penetrated the trend line down form 2008. This underlies my belief that long dated interest rates are set to soar.
30 Year Bond Yields same period
Indeed long bond yields bottomed in the same time period with commodity prices.
Closer look at the bottom in rates and commodity prices.
the pink line is the CRB ad the HLC bars are thirty year rates. Gee the two bottomed within two months of one another.
Copper
the price of copper is embedded in everything manufactured from cars to computers to homes. Hence it is economically referred to as Dr. Copper. ONe can see it is not waiting
for Jerome to call its rise transitory, this is for real, check the PMO at bottom which is just taking off.
TBF a bearish bond fund which rises when bond prices fall
Again the trend is reversing. Rates rose from 1942 to 1981, 39 years. They then fell from 1981 to 2020, 39 years. The whole pattern is now reversing.
Here is Victor Davis Hanson explaining just how this is happening now, ignorance of history.
https://dailycaller.com/2021/05/13/victor-davis-hanson-biden-administration-mocking-ancient-wisdom/
The US looks like Argentina, Venezuela, or even Zimbabwe, printing money with no increase in productivity. In fact think, it is worse than that. There are Help Wanted Signs and Sign On Bonus Signs all over San Antonio.So even fewer people are not working magnifying the inflation effect of massive money printing.
S & P
The DIA, Transports and SPX all gaped down last week and then rebounded the last two days. This does not constitute trend change quite yet.
NASD
A front page headline in the WSJ Weekend notes the IPO market has cooled. Shares of many are now below the offering price. And one can see numerous gaps, where there were not enough bids to cover sell orders, in the NASD.
Here is a longer daily view with the stop and reverse indicator reversing direction several times lately.
If PMO bottoms this week and price stays above the March low, a final high in June July may lie ahead.
TESLA has given up a third of its value since February.
Global Social Media
Here is a new recent low in Social Media stocks. All the major indexes wll top at different times. It may be that the red hot tech sector is now beginning what tech types call a broadening top.
Gold
Tom McClellan likes gold here saying itis good for an uptrend into the fall. Here he notes GLD is lagging the move in the price of gold
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/gld_assets_still_lagging_golds_rise/
PMO has bottomed andd looks to turn up.
Energy
I am bullish on energy a bit higher from here. But this is lengthy enough for one post, ,check back later for more.
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