friday Jan 15 2021
Watch Mitch
Saudi Arabia’s move helped send front month Brent crude oil prices up 7% in two weeks to above $55 a barrel.
Oil Market Has Plenty of Wild Cards, WSJ today
The combined attempts to cut supply by the Saudis, Russia, and American shale producers has rallied oil prices and energy shares. West Texas Intermediate is trading about the same at $53.57.
Liquefied natural gas LNG have soared from about $50 in October to $66 due to cold weather. A reshuffling of priorities at Exxon Mobil has that price up from $32 in November to $50.31 today. These improvements have moved energy service Halliburton form $12 to $22 in the same time frame.
We have mentioned numerous metrics in this space indicative of past highs in the stock market. Today it takes nine columns in the WSJ to list new highs, but there are only seven stocks making new lows. That is another indication of at least a fully priced market. Biden’s trillion plus package will not restore the economy as the last four failed as well. It will spur interest rates higher, our current long-term prediction.
The wild cards mentioned in the open quote are the new global warming crowd in DC and the weak US Dollar. After falling for months, the Dollar is probably near a longer term low. A dollar rally could cap the energy advance.
Which brings us to the outcome of the Georgia Senate election. Speaker Pelosi simply bet that there were more Democrat votes in stoking resentment of Trump, she was right. Now it would seem her best long-term tactic for assuring the Republicans future difficulty, would be to le Trump go as he attempts calculating a political future. In truth he has none, he is radioactive, now shunned by multiple groups. But Nancy won’t back off even attempting to impeach after Trump leaves office. Alan Dershowitz suggests that is not possible but never mind the law. But she may have a surprising ally in that attempt.
Mitch McConnell won his re-election, but lost the Senate Majority Leader post. He places the blame on Trump’s accusations of an election gone wrong in Georgia and insistence the Secretary of State, a Republican, was at fault. If the Senate votes to bar Trump from future office, that would be the opportunity to McConnell to eliminate this nemesis from his party once and for all. A career politician, McConnell is no doubt assessing how to regain Majority status in 2022. And that will be much easier without the mercurial, unpredictable Trump inside the political tent. If Mitch votes Trump out, he could easily have sixteen other Republican Senators seeking the same future relief.
Finally, the team of Siegfried and Roy defied predictions there was no future in a Las Vegas magic show. They became THE show to see, entertaining thousands of Vegas visitors. In addition they gained international recognition for their $10 M compound preserving rare white lions and tigers. Roy passed in 2020 and Siegfried just now, they will be missed as two who made a difference.
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