Thursday Jan 7, 2021
In retrospect the initial virus scare was a big blip on the market. S & P is liable to make 4,200 before a top occurs. taht would put the djIa at 34,000 more of less.tbf
We have maintained the one sure bet is on higher interest rates, something the Dems and Powell deny. Take a look at the bear bond fund TBF.
the big jump corresponds to this jump in rates.
10 Year Yield
Notice the two charts are identical indicating TBF really tracks the 10 year rate.
Social Mood
Dan Henninger's column on Thursdays is always interesting but even more so today. He notes that now
70% of Republicans distrust the election process as do 55% of moderate voters, or over half the voters distrust the process. Democrats have charged election fraud in every national election save McGovern and Mondale which were too far lopsided to make that claim. this is not a good place for a democracy.
this negative mood is not supportive of a rising stock market but for the time being it is doing just that.
Think of how often control of the White House, House, and Senate has split since Clinton's election. Clinton lost the House and Senate. Bush also went from all three to none. Obama has all three and then lost the Senate. Now Trump has lost all three.
The reason I think is the lack of alternatives, which is how Trump won in the first place. While some writers think Biden will focus on the virus, no doubt, I expect the rest of his team will be busy undoing everything Trump.
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