Weekend Jan 16 2021
The rally beginning last March appears to have finally ended this past week.
The final fifth wave top led to a gap down reversal Friday.
So we had a three month rally from early Nov to
early January. Expect an A B C correction into month end and then a rally for three more months into April 21.
Bonds
The initial sell off is finding support at 150 for TLT. As stocks sell off into the end of month it makes sense bonds rally back a bit.
Read biden's First Spending Blowout page A 12 in the weekend WSJ. A Friday op ed by Cogan and Taylor pointed out the last four attempts to have a one time rescue did not change spending habits.. That only happens when people think the economy has changed.
Spring 2.9 Trillioin
Dec .9 Trillion
Now 1.9 Trillion
5.7 Trillion, or as Ev Dirksen remarked on LBJ's first 100 B budgert, a billion here a billion there, pretty soon you are talking real money.
so expect bond prices to back up while stocks correct, then the interest rate increase will likely resume.
US Dollar
The low is likely between here and 86.5.
Energy
Energy has been the stand out the last three months as it lagged everything else dduring the March to January rally.
LNG adn natural gas have rallied on colder weather.
Big Picture is a sell off in stocks the rest of the month. So month end should be a good time to add or establish new positions.
We have identified some inverse funds for bond prices. We will update those as the correction ends later this month.
Social Mood
See my column Watch Mitch posted Fridday
Here is another inddication Republicans may use impeachment to rid themselve of Trump for good
Comments