Weekend Nov 7 2020
The bull market of 1982-2000 began after Reagan had been in office two years. Paul Volcker had finally broken the back of uber high interest rates. The country was recovering from oil embargo two. Reagan kept talking about the shining city on the hill and began deal making with Tip OI'Neil. Bill Cosby began his come back in 16981 with Bill Cosby Himself, a great stand up comic routine.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083652/
This led to his getting The Bill Cosby Show about The Huxtablles about two upwardly mobile family of color. It ran from 1984 to 1992, the first half of that bull market. Today however Bill Cosby sits in jail.
Reagan would wallop Mondale in the electoral college 525 to 13. We had a popular President with mass support all across America.
Now none of those social events are taking place.
AOC and Obama supporters are starting Nixon like enemies lists.
There is no room for disagreement, a classic American tradition, in the world of AOC.
“Democratic socialist” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) tweeted: “Is anyone archiving these Trump sycophants for when they try to downplay or deny their complicity in the future? I foresee decent probability of many deleted Tweets, writings, photos in the future.”
Michael Simon, who describes himself as a former staff member in Barack Obama’s administration, replied in the affirmative, linking to what he called the “Trump Accountability Project”:
Yes, we are.
The Trump Accountability Project (@trumpaccproject)
Every Administration staffer, campaign staffer, bundler, lawyer who represented them — everyone. https://t.co/PHx8v8GxOp
— Michael Simon (@mbsimon) November 6, 2020
This is negative mood on display. Bull markets develop as we move from the negative mood of the 1970s to the positive mood of Reagan. Joe Biden ran on unity but what will be delivered is anything but.
The lead article in the Review Section of the Weekend WSJ is titled
Can the West Still Lead? The article even coins a new term , Westlessness, the belief that the West has lost its ability to lead.
Again Reagan postulated freedom leads to prosperity. Yet today China after a remarkable three decades of growth shows prosperity can occur without any freedom
Demonstrators are in the streets of the US, Belarus, France, South America, you name it.
This is not how waves of positive mood generate a new bull market.
Adding to our list, interest rates have been declining and are now likely to quickly rise.
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/post_el_nino_cooling_means_a_bottom_soon_for_bond_yields/?utm_source=McClellan+Chart+In+Focus&utm_campaign=ce65568e09-email_cif_2020-11-05_post_el_nino_cooling_means_a_&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9e79f8200f-ce65568e09-120091678
Only the NDX and NASD have made new highs in the US. All other indexes peaked February 12. Sure prices may spike again on the end of the election. But evidence mounts this is all more likely an end to the ten year rally.
Monthly PMO in bottom panel is headed down, not up. HIgher interest rates and more regulation are not going to goose this market higher.
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