The Great Depression

  • Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary

    Benjamin Roth: The Great Depression: A Diary
    It's all here, times change people don't -the endless govt programs that fail to stimulate the private sector -the ups and downs of the economy, the veterans pension stimulates just as the housing credit did, until of course the money runs out -Roth is a attorney in Youngstown Ohio who kept a diary regarding the economy from 1930 until WW II breaks out, he is objective, candid, and forthright which is more than we get from Washington DC now or then highly recommended

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May 20, 2020


A.M. Putman

Hello Professor,

I enjoy reading your analysis. Thank you for taking the time to blog daily.
While I pay attention to and try to meticulously count the waves, I have been a contrarian (bullish)in this market. I do NOT want to fight the FED. When we saw the current up wave on the Nasdaq stay above the 61.8% fib, then we saw Nasdaq prices go over wave two, it was looking more like the FAANGs were still going to push the market up to test the higher fibs. Based on the daily put/call ratio on the SPY over the past weeks, it appeared that many or most traders had been short this market. Now, many people may be jumping in on the long side due to fear of missing out(FOMO). This is when we could see the real selling begin. I suspect it will begin soon once we retrace to approx 100% on the Nasdaq and 78.6% on the SPX. Most of the analyst I read have been uncertain or short since April 1st. And once those who are short begin to capitulate and go long, it should get ugly. I would be looking at going short or selling at SPX $3130. However, please note that we are coming up to a key resistance at the 200 day SMA which is SPX $3000. This may be a better place for a correction to start as 3000 is a psychological number. If SPX blows through the 3000, the next target is the 3130 area which also happens to be the top of wave two and the 78.6% fib. Just my two cents. Have a good day rest of your day.

Dennis Elam

Excellent, I will post if you don't mind since you did put it as a comment.
And if this happens it will shock everyone, socionomics holds that experiences are unremembered, the decline from Feb 12 - Mar 23 is already frogotten it apears.

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