Monday March 23 2020
6 26 AM CST
I just received the latest from someone named Kevin Matras, Exec VP at Zack's,, see below.
Apparently not enough 'dippers' signed on so Kevin is extending his offer.
Page B 1 of the WSJ suggests just what I wrote this past weekend. The headline reads
Investors Fear Worst is Yet to Come
or page B 9
Bets on Stocks Backfire in Slump
Once we start seeing those kinds of headlines, a bottom might be in the making. Or at least the first bottom. The govt imposed lay-offs insure a recession, just a matter of how long before business can resume
Hotels Furlough, Cut Thousands of Staff
All the large hotels in downtown San Antonio are now closed the Marriott alone has 1.000 rooms vacant.
And the multiplier effect to near by restaurants, taxis, musesums, you name it, is long lasting.
Now that we are down 11,000 DJIA points, some fear starts to set in.okay that is a good thing. We will not hit bottom until fear is the headline and Kevin has no buyers for his always uber bullish service.
DJIA down 400-500 this morning at 18,522m 11,000 points down from 29,586 registered Feb 12.
Socionomics teaches us that positive social mood brings inclusive mood. This typicallly leads to the idea of big projects, say the Empire State Building in NYC planned in 1928, or the desire to buy and merge. I personally think such mergers are the result of rising ego among CEOs who simply feel that they have to do 'something' to prove their mettle. In this case that something was Occidental's new female CEO ppyaing $38 billion for Anadarko. Now oil is priced at $22 and no one would approve buying Anadarko. Carl chan increased his share of ownership. If CEO Vicki Hollub wants to keep her job she will comply with Carl's request for a new board.
Similar deals were the Time Warner takeover, Daimler buying Chrysler, Fed Ex buying Kinko's and so it goes.
Goldman Sachs thinks economic output in US could tumble 24% in the second quarter, I think it probably already has. And besides, how on earth can GS make such an estimate, based on what?
Years ago the market followed money supply, the idea that the growth or shrink of total money drove the economy and investing. Belief has moved on to what the FED is doing I guess but this is a good time to re visit that idea. The velocity of money, how fast it changes hands, has slowed to near nothing. So the money supply is shrinking as we get more lay-offs, the worst of both worlds.
My take is that the worst of the immediate sell off is behind us. Markets will be moving into a corrective fourth wave and then a final fifth wave down as the reality of the economic slow down sets in.
Zack's invitation is below
____________________________________
Last night was the deadline to claim all the advantages of our long-term investing services and Zacks Premiumresearch at a small fraction of their worth.
You were on the restricted list of Zacks members who were given this opportunity and I'd hate to see you miss out.
Right now, prices for many strong stocks are at bargain levels. When the coronavirus outbreak subsides and the US.-Mexico-Canada and U.S.-China trade deals gain momentum, I expect the release of pent-up demand to send the markets skyrocketing.
This is too good of an opportunity. So I'm extending the deadline until midnight tonight.