Weekend Oct 20 2019
We are focused on a convergence of cycle lows in energy likely to occur in mid November.
Energy stocks broke down a year ago and are likely to do so again Our last two newspaper columns, posted on this site, note that important energy lows are marked bvy
big discounts in price for energy shares
Many firms will trade at discounts to book value, that is already happening to Shale producers like AXAS and energy service firms like RIG
the appearance of gloom and doom article sin the media,, just such an article appeared inn the WSJ this past week, we quote some of the lines from that in our piece
major announcements by firms that there is little reason to expect things to change. This was true at top in 2014 amid $100 ooil as Halliburton,Weatherford,and Baker Hughes completed major projects i the Eagle Ford only to have them open later to $35 oil. Now the opposite is occurring with the SLB's announcement of lower expectations for the future.
All of this is typical social mood at market extremes. Recall that maximum mood happens at the end of a move. The events cited above are evidence of just that.
DIG
This bull fund is already near last December low when the markets DJIA were thousands of points lower.
Cabot COG is a natural gas producer mainly i Marcellus Shale of PA. If natural gas bottoms along with crude in November, this is one to watch.
Elsewhere we see lower prices for stocks into mid November
Hard to see higher bond prices at these low interest levels but mayvbe
Gold and silver seem to be congesting, Tom McClellan points out negative sentiment in the Committment of Traders reports.
Social Mood
Simply leaf thru the weekend WSJ, can you find a positive headline? After Theresa May got the boot, Boris Johnson presented a deal which got rejected again, Britain seems impossibly split.
Trump threatens to sue CNN and ask for monetary damages given a released recording of CNN execs, no impeachment vote
Discord in Moscow, Hong Kong, Ecuador, cartels take over Mexican cities, German and French leaders on thin support
Caution is warranted.
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