Weekend Oct 13, 2019
Stocks will likely make a final top in the next few months as this distribution pattern plays out.
Transports
Transports have made lower highs but did jump Friday once again on positive trade news. Is is possible the Chinese have decided Trump will win the election? Would that be why they might be willing to make a deal now than face another four years with him? I don't know yet if they plan to do anything other than talk.
Russell 2000 looks like the Transports.
Energy
And as noted energy looks the same as Transports and Russell. A cluster of cycle lows should occur in November, possibly re visiting the 425 low of last December. Will stocks and energy part company? too soon to tell.
Gold
The commitment of traders report shows the commercials are short gold suggesting topping action there.
PMO looks toppy on the weekly chart.
GLD Paper Gold
On balance volume at top looks stretched for paper gold GLD.
Social mood
Social mood continues to turn more and more negative around the world, from Syria / Turkey, Moscow, Hong Kong, Brexit, and the expanded Civil War here between Trump and the Democrats.And other world markets are much weaker than the US.
None of this is positive for markets. The potential low in crude prices and then a rise suggests more problems in the Middle East.
Our warning of caution in the newspaper column weeks ago seems to be validated, be careful now that we are at new highs.
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