Weekend August 25, 2019
In days leading to the G 7 summit in France Trump
escalated the trade war with China
blasted Denmark for not selling him Greenland
declared the world is in recession
blasted his FED Chair Powell
threatened tariffs against various G 7 members
called for Russia te be re admitted to the G 7
So it should be no surprise markets tanked Friday
NFLX - providing lots of clues
It is not a stretch to see NFLX returning to the last December low. the rest of the FANG group was lower as well. This is a clue where the major indexes are liable to go.
IINDU and TRAN
No Dow Theory Buy signal here! Both Industrials and Transports are headed down hard, already bback to the June lows for the Transports.
2016 - Today
Here is an earlier attempt to identify five waves up from teh 2016 low. Looks like a throw over occurred in June July this year.
Honestly I am not sure of the wave count. But I would not be surprised that that the high for the year has now been recorded.
24,000 looks like support but if Trump continues bashing the rest of the world, well market disdain uncertainty and prices could fall
further. A break of 24,000 would violate the uptrend and suggest a re-visit of the December low. That is not a prediction but would leave the market still above the 200 bar MA.
Eenergy Crude Oil WTIC
Charting 101, the market broke through the uptrend line to the downside. It then re-tried and failed to resume the uptrend. Now the MAs are coming together, usually a precursor to a change i trend. This is at least setting up a test of the December low at 43. Taking that out as with the stock market would allow for much lower prices. Energy is leading stocks lower as investors since growing economic weakness world wide.
Last week I mentioned watching the refiners. CRAK broke it s three major MAs. VLO dropped 5% this wee. FRAK the shale producer ETF is falling off its chart closing at 9.66.
XRT Retail ETF, the Economy at a glance
XRT dropped 3.79% this week. It is possible to talk an economy into a recession.
XRT Weekly
XRT is right back where it started in January 2016 when the other markets took off. This is a sensitive indicator Retail stores are closing as online shopping gathers steam. This has a domino effect on shopping malls and stand alone retail strip centers. Someof the latter have been standing vacant for years in my north side affluent San Antonio neighborhood.
Cullen Frost Bank
The best managed independent bank in Texas closed under its 200 bar weekly MA. Falling interest rates and lower energy prices took it to book value in early 2016. Could that happen again?
CFR Monthly
We are a week away from the end of the month. But the PMO monthly at bottom has turned down. ANd CFR is down 13% for the month so far. This may be setting up a great buy later this fall.
XAU
This looks too over done to buy in now. But the gold and silver rally continues. Given the recent multi year extreme in the gold silver ratio with silver out of favor, we like silver.
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