Weekend May5 2019
Stocks typically peak after tax day April 15 ans snooze through the summer. While Larry Kudlow claims the stock market is soaring in fact it has just returned to its Oct 2018 high.
The third wave is the strongest and indeed PMO peaked with the third wave. Fifth waves are weaker and that is reflected in the meandering PMO now.
This looks like a set up for a high this week say May 9 and then a correction. That may offer a much better entry level than we have now.
Larry Kudow and Trump are both screaming for lower rates.But a look at the chart sine the low of July 2016 suggests that we are on a normal recovery from what was surely the 34 Fib low in rates. The high in rates recorded in 1982 stretched an exact 34 years to 2016. The better idea is that the ten year yield is finishing a fourth wave down and will next see a fifth wave up to new highs in rates. Trump as a real estate developer of course wants zero interest rates.
Apache
The failure at the 200 day MA on APA supports my idea in the weekly column that oil prices have peaked.
APA is now priced below all its MAs.
CRB Index 12 year History
CRB has been falling for ten years since the 140 high in oil in 2008. I may have been way over optimistic about gold given the above picture.
Bottom Line
Expect a topping in stocks following an apparent top in energy. Till now they have both been moving up from the December low.
US stocks are acting much better than the rest of the world. Can this be sustained?
Social Mood
Yesterday General Jack Keane on WSJ Editorial Report suggested intercepting oil from Venezuela to Cuba on the high seas. That would certainly test Putin's support for Both countries. Such action on the high seas in International Waters is usually seen as an act of war. Maduro shows no signs of leaving and the Cubans and now Russians are really supporting him. This is the spot to watch.
Kim defiant in North Korea
China pressing South China Sea
England can't fix Brexit, Macron unpopular in France, and German economy slowing
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