Weekend May 12, 2019
No stock market rally has ever exceeded ten years. This rally hit he ten year ark two months ago
Trump is embarking on the biggest tariff war since Smoot Hawley of the Depression. That disaster did not end uyntil after WW II with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GATT.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act
Every other developed country stock market is trailing ours, by wide margins.
i posted this back in october and it has updated since. it looks like an A wave corrective up just ended which means a B Wave down has begun. if we take out 22,000, that would suggest 18,000 but we are getting ahead of ourselves. Note PMO peaked with the 3rd Wave..
The administration brags about the stock market. Even Maria Bartiromo mentioned the market is still up 25% from December. But here is the truth, the DJIA made a lower high on this Wave A move up. And now has broken over.
Transports lead
The Transports made significantly lower high on this move and are already under the 200 day MA.
Energy
I have been warning about the weakness in XES despite the 42 - 66 rally in oil prices. RIG, Apache APA and XES are all below their 2009 crash low prices. This is a warning of real oil patch problems.
Social mood continues very negative with Democrat candidates trashing Trump supporters and vice versa.
Tom McClellan is the so of the couple who invented the McClellan Summations Index. And Tom says things are just great because the Advance Decline line is strong.
This weekly chart bears watching. Yes it is a big move up, rescue or last gasp of a ten year rally?
Summation Index Daily
I have never read of a politician who recognized the business cycle. Trump is no different.
Even Fidelity recognizes we are late in the usual business cycle.
And I do not think Trump understands the difference in a private negotiation over a golf course versus a very public one with China, a country who is resuming its world presence after 500 years of slumber.
As a college professor, I can assure you Asian students work hard, American students do not.
And we have a raft of politicians offering something, health care, college, retirement, minimum wage, for nothing.
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