Weekend March .2, 2019
The Big Picture
Stocks completed a ten year rally Oct 3, 2018. No stock rally has ever lasted longer than ten years. There is plenty of evidence that five Elliott Waves are complete. And the fractal since 2016 suggests five waves are complete there as well. The DJIA dropped 4,000 points in4Q 2018. Since then it has rallied about 11%. But if things are drawing to a close, we would look for non confirmations in the Transports and Russell 2000.
Transports
This shows my earlier estimate of a wave count. If correct, we have now seen another Wave One Down and Wave Two up, the latter now failing at the previous fourth wave seen last fall.
Note PMO is turning down at bottom.
The RUT small cap index is also failing at the 200 day MA.
SOX Semi conductor index
SOX has done better than TRAN or RUT but is up against resistance. One can argue this will just be a correction of a rally ahead of itself. We shall see.
NYSE comes up short as well
NYSE is apparently up against resistance as well.
Berkshire Hathaway
PMO is crossing to the downside, bad bet on Kraft. BRK is well below its prior high.
Bonds
Bond prices are falling at resistance, a bit lower than the previous high. The FED may be dovish but the real market is moving rates higher.
Oil Price
Crude oil, stocks,and gold are all up against resistance. The PMO and MACD has topped out for each. Look for a correction coming here in oil.
Gold
Support is at the 125/200day MA near 1250. Intra day Friday gold was down $22. Look for more correction and then we expect a resumption of the uptrend.
XAU Two Hour chart
the uptrend is still in tact,look for a test of the 200 bar red MA.
The correction in stocks should be gin soon, gold and bonds are underway, and energy should pull back soon.
Social Mood
Democrats declared and considering a Presidential Run
The message here is that they all assume whoever is nominated will win. Ted Cruz scraped by and is warning Republicans to take this and the New Green Deal Seriously.
No wonder markets are looking to retreat a bit.
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