Weekend March 10, 2019
The talking heads on CNBC and such would have you believe nothing can go wrong as
the economy is just great
unemployment is low
Trade picture is improving
Tax Cuts worked
Socionomics allows us to anticipate change, what is the social mood. All one has to do is leaf through the Weekend WSJ and San Antonio Express News which carries lots of
syndicated stories. Consider these headlines
WSJ
Hiring Lull Taps Brake on Growth
CohenTestimony
Warren Calls for Break Up of Tech Companies
US China Trade Talks Hit a Bump
Country wide Blackout Hits Venezuela
Get Ready for the Struggle Session
Chinese Economy Slows
Earlier this wee, auto inventories hit new high
San Antonio EN
France's Yellow Vest protestors Persist
There is plenty of un rest and we did not touch on the 14 declared Dem candidates
John Murphy notes this is literally the tenth anniversary of the March 9, 2009 low, no stock market rally has ever gone more than ten years.
SPX
The PPO correctly predicted the 2016-2018 rally. Now it is has turned down as SPX has traced out a lower high.
Daily SPX
Again the PPO predicted the post Dec 24 rally but now has topped and turned down.
The stock market usually leads the economy by 6-9 months.
NYSE Advance Decline
The top shown in the A/D line is clear. This is not good news for Trump who has touted the stock market gains as a measure of his success. Let the markets slide for the next year and the Dems will jump on that.
Yes the employment stats are wonderful that is called a market high. But we have multiple signs of worsening mood.
Consider China
Military moving to the South China Sea, three op eds this past week in the WSJ suggest either we have already lost the West Pacific or no one there
trusts us to come to their rescue. The latter will certainly be correct if the Dems take the White House, and probably if they do not.
Monetary-Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
https://www.aiib.org/en/index.html
Transportation - The New Silk Road
China is moving ahead on all fronts while here the Dems are investigating a sitting President
Gold and the Transportation index have an inverse correlation. As the Transports sold off this week, Gold perked up.
Could the markets be worried about currency stability? Of course they could.
Stocks came back Friday to erase most of their losses, look for a two to three day counter trend bounce to the upside starting Monday.
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