Weekend Feb 9 2019
Most forecasters do not follow the NYSE rather the SPX or DJIA or NASD. But it is a much broader picture of what is happening.
I don't see much encouraging here despite the late day Friday rally in the DJIA. this is a lower high and below the 200 day MA.
NYSE Advance Decline Line
This looks topped out to me MACD and RSI over done and price in a parabolic condition.
VLO looks to be completing a 4th wave up
I read a variety of letters and cannot recall when I saw so many different opinions.
At Insiide Track Erik Hadik believes markets have ompleted five waves up from 2009.But he suspects this will be a long drawn out top like 2000 - 2002.
Art Hill and John Murphy at stockcharts note the rally will be ten years long next month and no rally ever lasted this long. Their posts look like the above charts.
Tom McClellan is optimistic pointing to expanding breadth and a third year in the Presidential cycle. I think this President is so different that prior comparisons with other cycles are likely to be flawed. He also points out a couple of days of ten to one up to down volume. And indeed the markets are up the last seven weeks.
But, the PMO on the NYSE is clearly over bought and trying to turn down. Same for the AD line
And I see the bullish percent charts are just at the 50% level. Take a look at the 150 day CP chart
The indicator is right where it was turned back twice in November. I had thought the markets would have turned one way or the other by now but that has not happened.
GLD is probably ahead of itself.
I am very bullish on gold and silver but GLD is maxing RSI at top and MACD at bottom. So expect some sort of pullback during February.
FRAK
I don't see anything encouraging about this chart of FRAK the Eagle Ford group.
The refiner chart for CRAK looks much the same.
Bottom Line I am still epecting some pull back in stocks and gold. Stocks are certainly not the buy they were seven weeks ago.
Social Mood remains incredibly negative with the political parties further apart than ever.Chaos reigns in Virginia. Every week another progressive Democrat joins the Presidential race lurching further to the left than the one the week before. Howard Schultz is right, most of these ideas are just plain ridiculous.
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