Weekend July 22, 2018
BRKB
Warren was apparently reading The Market Perspective about how BRKB was headed down. So he announced a share buy back, and bingo, BRKB rallied. It has pulled back since and might probe that big gap. And if the overall market pulls back, can BRKB stand the strain?
Two Hour
Nice break out to the upside.
The NYSE A/D line is in the same position where it corrected last January.
The trend is still up but Friday afternoon I had CNBC and Fox Business on. As more and more talking heads discussed the billions of tarifed goods, the market slowly lost its momentum. See our accompanying newspaper column posted next.
DJIA and TRAN
The series of lower highs, the convergence of all the MAS, the weak PMO at bottom, and the lagging Transports at top suggest a more significant pullback may be at hand.
Gold and the Dollar
Gold down, Dollar is back to its previous high, PMO is pulling back, this could mark a Dollar high and metals low pretty fast.
Dollar and Oil
Oil has managed to sty in an uptrend but it should move higher on dollar weakness as well.
Notes and bonds have rallied since May but rates eventually look higher which means lower bond prices.
The Bottom Line
Good chance for stock market pullback, dollar high, metals and oil low.
Social Mood
Again see our weekly newspaper column posted next.
Reasons the odds are stacked against Trump in the Tariff War.
China is united whether the people like Xi or not, he is in charge. There is no dissent to distract policy in China.
Here Trump frets when told there are things he cannot or should not do. One third of voters are unhinged livid that he is President. This is so
much the case that they are unable to understand WHY he got elected.Hence they cling to some conspiracy theory of Russia or Comey or whatever
that brought us to this point. This makes it much more difficult to mount a united US front for anything.
Meanwhile Canada, Mexico, the EU and China are inking their own trade deals without the US. And given the bruised feelings it seems unlikely
the US will be invited back anytime soon.
Even Trump's own party doubts his trade strategy. And given China, North Korea, and trade, where are the wins for Trump?
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