Weekend June 3, 2018
Yes that is a bread out after three months of correction. And yes it has pulled back to test the support level. But all in all this is not terribly impressive.
NDX
The NDX containing the FANG stocks looks much stronger.
Template for the Next Three Years
IN early 2000 or late 1999 the DJIA peaked. It then moved sideways in such a fashion as to keep bullish hopes alive. But ultimately this was a sideways affair leading to the final fall in 9//11/02.But notice the market had headed down way before the attack. I am expecting the same sort of thing now. By parallel we are in year 2000 with most analysts still quite bullish.
BRKB
On the Friday close one could buy BRKB for 192.3 and sell the July195 call for 3.45. If it gets called that is near six bucks for 45 days exposure. That is 3%. If that trade cold be replicated more times during the year, the yields would be impressive.
I expect a low Monday Tuesday and then some sort of rally in to the July 4 weekend.
Crude Oil
Crude should also bottom in the near term. The Strong Dollar has curbed metals and oil. And yes there is talk that the Russians and Saudi will open the spigots on oil supply as though
we did not have enough of it around already. Watch the charts for what the market does, not the news.
Social Mood
Joy Reid, MSNBC
On Wednesday, BuzzFeed News reported that Ms. Reid’s old blog had promoted a Sept. 11 conspiracy by suggesting that readers watch “Loose Change,” which posits that the attack was planned by the United States government.
And on Thursday, BuzzFeed News surfaced a post that contained an image of Senator John McCain’s head Photoshopped onto the body of Seung-Hui Cho, who killed 32 people in the 2007 shooting at Virginia Tech. Meghan McCain, the senator’s daughter, wrote on Twitter that the post was “beyond disgusting and disgraceful.”
Other 'comedians'
Last year, the FCC vaguely threatened to investigate Stephen Colbert for a crack about Trump's mouth being “Vladimir Putin’s cock holster.” Soon after, there was Kathy Griffin and her fake decapitated Trump photo, which got her kicked off a few television specials, blacklisted for at least a year, and eventually investigated by the Secret Service. At this year’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner, everyone got all hot and bothered about a few jokes host Michelle Wolf made about White House press secretary Sarah
Roseanne Barr
Then, earlier this week, Roseanne Barr made a “joke” (does this word have any meaning anymore?) comparing former Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett — a black woman — to an ape.
Tom Arnold Roseanne's former Husband
Trump is an A________
Analysis
It is clear that there is no policy debate, this is sheer mudslinging and name calling. And this is only June!
And the liberals keep their jobs while the entire cast of Roseanne is off the air, as well as crew and writers.
As a socionomist we know that financial regulations are removed at market highs. And that happened in bi partisan fashion May 2.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2018/05/22/congress-dismantles-part-dodd-frank-law/hMMr4PAdO3CoTFlBSjzm7J/story.html
And we know that bull markets are fashioned with positive discourse while bear markets are the result of negative discourse.
Now compare what is happening here with what is happening in China. After a 500 year slumber, China is back on the world scene.
500 years ago China ventured forth to see the world in some of the largest ships ever built at the time. Seeing nothing that surpassed their civilization, they retreated inward.
The 13th century brought the Mongol conquest of China. In 1271, the Mongol leader Kublai Khan established the Yuan dynasty; the Yuan conquered the last remnant of the Song dynasty in 1279. Before the Mongol invasion, the population of Song China was 120 million citizens; this was reduced to 60 million by the time of the census in 1300.[88] A peasant named Zhu Yuanzhang overthrew the Yuan in 1368 and founded the Ming dynasty as the Hongwu Emperor. Under the Ming dynasty, China enjoyed another golden age, developing one of the strongest navies in the world and a rich and prosperous economy amid a flourishing of art and culture. It was during this period that Zheng He led treasure voyages throughout the world, reaching as far as Africa.[89]
That had ended. If one speaks to someone who lived there, the reflection is always the same. As long as you do not say anything about the government, you are OK.
We reported a few posts back that some 300 million Chinese have $200,000 in the bank, no other nation can make that claim.
And now Xi is President for life.
Well, one thing about it, there will be no discouraging words on Chinese TV!
My point is that while China is building a new super power the US is squabbling in mud slinging and name calling which accomplishes nothing.
How many times have we witnessed the grossest insults, all by tv personalities who know better, I mean someone put that in the teleprompter, followed by an 'apology.'
While he Chinese are laser focused on building the woorld's largest everything, the US is bickering like children in a school yard. The smart bet is that the Chinese realize this and will endeavor to use the discord to their advantage. With its shrinking demographics, Russia can only play the role of spoiler but one has to admit Putin has done spectacularly well at that latel.
While this sort of junior high school yard discourse runs rampant here, none of that sort of behavior holds back the Chinese. It is as though the US decided to stay out of the game, and let the Chinese build its military, thrust into the South China Sea, and lead the new trade agreements in the Pacific.
That cannot be a good idea for the US. But I don't see it changing.
[email protected]
The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or predictions.