Weekend April 29
This might be an opportune time to examine the last two nine year peaks in stock indexes.
Year 2000 Peak
The Transports are the early warning. And I was surprised to learn that the Transports peaked around 3,700 in 1998, collapsed to 2,300, then rose to 3,800 in 1999 and then began a multi year sell off in to Oct 2001 and 2002.
The NDX and NASD had parabolic rise to around 5,000 and then collapased amid the dot.com fiasco.
NDX
SPX
This market lost about half its value in two years.
Year 2007-09
Transports
The Transports peaked early in 2007 and again in 2008 and then quickly collapsed more than 50%.
NDX
SPX
SPX peaked in Fall 2007 and then completely fell apart in the last half of 2008.
Today
Transports
All the indexes are amazingly still in a weekly uptrend.. Transports are still above all MAs.
NDX
NDX is still in an uptrend
SPX
but I don't know that makes any of these markets a great buy either.
US Dollar
This is not a trend reversal, perhaps it is an oversold bounce as we saw last November. And we do not have a crossover of the MAs. But this has pressured gold and energy.
Priced in dollars, energy has paused and gold pulled back a bit.
A this point there is not much else to say. Weakness in consumer staples suggests market problems.
PG
What's wrong with PG? One would think XLP would rally amidst a market correction.
Bottom Line is simply that I don't see any great opportunities this week.
Social Mood
The squeak by confirmation of Mike Pompeo is another new low in political discourse. The same is trued for Michelle Wolf's potty mouth remarks at the WH Correspondent dinner.
Even Harry Reid is warning to tamp down the impeachment talk.But I suspect it will only get worse, discourse wise into the election.
Hm, who pays for this WH Correspondent dinner I wonder? Did we taxpayers?
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