Weekend March 4, 2018
Carl Swenlin at Decision Point Stockcharts.com, Eric Hadik at Insiide, and my friends at EWI believe the markets have topped out.
All others are in the correction camp.
SPY
SPY finished five waved down at 252.5. A Wave A up completed at 277.5.We are now in a B wave down or so it appears.If 265 does not hold a re test at teh 200 bar level in the blue box is likely. The rally back Friday suggests some strength early this week. But that may just be the b Wave of larger B to the downside.
Gold
Gold bounced right where it needed to do so at 1300. This should be an important low. Mining shares are still trailing gold on the ratio chart.
One can make the case for rough inverse head and shoulder formations in HL, CDE, and silver itself.
Silver
Silver needs to take out $17.20 on a weekly close to get things going.
Energy Service XES
XES remains quite weak. Hard to see the energy sector improving without this sector coming to life.
Despite a weak dollar, commodity plays are still not what they should be which is to say they are weak.
The five year note yield has risen from less than 1.7% to 2.63%. Congress would do better to watch that chart than to listen to Jerome.
So watch the 2650 SPX level, if it gives way stocks are lower. I suspect that will happen which will mark a low for the time being.
Interest rates continue to climb. Gold and silver need to break out but apparently found support this past week.
XES Energy Service remains weak. Bell weather Apache APA broke support at 39 falling to 34, yikes! XOP collapsed from 40 to 31 and now 34. Patterson PTEN looks much the same down from 25 to 18.
Social Mood
The political parties are reeling from various intra party fractal battles. Last week California Dems turned thumbs down on Diane Feinstie
n, who at 84 wants another six year term. Clinton favorite Tom Perez heads the party but the far left Bernie Sanders Liz Warren wing is in revolt.
Trump disappoints Republicans with his steel and aluminum tariffs. No a trade war is not easy to win. I suggest Wharton revoke Trump's degree.
So both parties exhibit strong exclusionary trends. Dems have gotten really quiet on Pelosi's claim that the tax cuts were crumbs as Trump's favor ability climbs to 49%. Workers notice the difference in take home pay.
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