Weekend March 17, 2018
Tom McClellan believes high yield bonds are over sold, no inflation worry yet
DJIA
As said last weekend this should resolve up or down in the next two weeks.
Transports
Transports are above the upper down trend line which is a positive.
Commodity prices have yet to significantly take off. Gold and silver still on hold despite calls for a rally from various groups.
GSCI is still in an uptrend. Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is 76% energy so that bodes well for energy.
U S Dollar
On the daily chart the US Dollar has the PMO indicator peaking. It has bounced enough to relieve the oversold condition.
Gold continues its correction from its January top. Silver has not turned up yet.
Best idea is to be patient and determine whether stock indexes break up or down.
Social Mood
Markets generally do not like uncertainty. Here is the last paragraph of my latest newspaper column.
Meanwhile one can satisfy both a television and political itch by watching The Apprentice play out in real time at the White House. You’re fired directives have been issued in the last two weeks to Gary Cohn, Rex Tillerson, and now H. R. McMaster. Yet John Bolton has expressed interest in replacing McMaster. Meanwhile Donald Trump, Jr. and his wife are divorcing. We have no reliable reports on what First Lady Melania thinks about the Stormy stories but that cannot be going well. President Trump says he enjoys chaos. And that seems to be the one Presidential accomplishment on which all can agree.
The WSJ Editorial noted today that the first lay offs among users of steel has already begun. A company making steel beer kegs cannot use even higher priced steel.
It is getting harder and harder to see how Trump will attract new voters. By November he may be down to just Ivanka.
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