Weekend March 30 2018
Major Market Index
The major Market Index has turned its daily trend down.
It is testing its 200 day MA.
Transports
The Transports exhibit what R N Elliott described as a throw over. The Throw Over often occurs at market tops. It represents a last gasp attempt to move the market higher which fails.
Two Hour Major Market Index
All the MAs are bending to the down side
MMI shows lower lows and lower highs, stair stepping down
The latest rally has taken CCI back to the top of its range in the lower panel.Notice the last three or four failures at the 50 or 125 bar MA.
Percent of S & P Stocks Above 50 day MA
This indicator shows that the percentage has fallen from bull market 85% to bear market 25-30%.
Weekly Bullish Percent
This is perhaps the most positive chart. The indicator has nearly reached a prior extreme seen in 2015. And the PMO is turning up on the weekly chart. The last weekly bar is an inside week, often a sign of accumulation.
Bonds
TLT has rallied from 117 to 122, not exactly a house of fire flight to quality
US Dollar is still at best sideways with the weekly MAs about 1.75 apart.
XAU Gold Miners
The XAU came back to test a very short term uptrend line. It needs to break out and deliver a cross over of the MAs this week to stay bullish.
Energy
Crude oil has yet to crest the previous resistance at $66. XES Energy Service is trending lower as is Apache APA. XLE is at best sideways. No new signals from the GSG Goldman Commodity Fund.
Bottom Line
Carl Swenlin at Decision Point Stockcharts.com notes taht inhis intermediate term trend model, only Tech is still a buy. That means that the other nine sectors are not. That argues for another down turn in stocks in my book.
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