Weekend Jan 28, 2018
Stock Price has zoomed out of the cyclical bull market rising trend channel. There are no longer any visible technical restraints on the advance. Okay, there's gravity.
Carl Swenlin, Decision Point
BAML sell signal, perfect track record for this indicator
Tom McClellan suggests Bitcoin is 8 weeks ahead of he stock market
It seems everyone is wildly bullish oil prices. But DIG DUG XOP XLE XES are all looking pretty toppy. It could be that the US Dollar is poised to rebound having just hit a new low.
The oil price is strong but share prices are looking toppy. Here is XOP
RSI at top is weakening, PMO at bottom is turning down. This along with the over sold dollar suggests a commodity pullback would surprise recent commodity buls.
XES Energy Service
the Energy Service sector has lagged. Here is is turning down as well. A re3 t4est of the 34 bar EMA may well be in order here.
CLF
CLF posted good earnings and surged thursday morning over $9. Then it posted a huge outside reversal day. Price has now fallen below the 34 day EMA.
RSI is below 50 and PMO just flashed a sell signal. CLF is in the iron ore business so it is another bell weather commodity play. I am still bullish commodities longer term but
this could all be an early shake out.
U S Dollar
Here is the new low in the US Dollar. But the pound and Swiss Franc are hitting new highs. No sign of a bottom but...
Industrials
Here are the Industrials and the NASD 100. This is a repeat of the ru up in 1998-2000. Extreme expressions of social mood occur at the end of a trend.
XLU
Finally money is going back into the beaten down defensive utility sector. Again this adds to the evidence that a top of some significance is approaching. XLU is a risk off investment.
Social Mood
NDX has risen 2,000 points in one year. In the 1982-2000 bull market the NASD made about half its over all gain in the last two years. From the level of 5,000, it returned to 1,250 given the dot.com crash. I am not predicting a crash and other than bitcoin and TESLA, Idon't see a wide spread dot.com type mania. But.....
Page B1 of the Weekend WSJ reports Retail Investors Jump Into Market. Schwab said retail business rose 49% in 2017 from a year earlier with more than half of new clients age 40 or younger.
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