Weekend Dec 10, 2017
I have read a bearish case for oil courtesy of Steve Craig at EWI. It goes like this.
The weekly chart shows a clear five waves own to February 2016. We would then expect an A B C corrective pattern back to the previous fourth wave high. That is about $62.
Daily chart of last corrective up wave.
Here is a five wave up count which should shortly terminate at 62. the current small wave four could fall to 54 before recovering.
The bull case is made by Greg Schnell at stockcharts.com. He used a combination of point and figure analysis. That projected a second move comparable to 25-62 from 2016-2017. Add the same 37 points to 62 and oil is back over 100. That further assumes a down turn in the dollar. And given the hub bub over the Jerusalem issue, it is not hard to see tempers flaring in the Mid East leading to higher oil prices.
US Dollar
I am suggesting the dollar has completed five waves down into September. If so the Dollar would complete a A B C correction in a couple of weeks.
Daily Dollar
The thinking here is that once the Dollar completes its correction. gold bottoms and the energy sector rises as well as the dollar falls. Which is the correct view, I honestly do not know as
each is representative of the respective thinking.
Gold
RSI and PMO and price all headed down. 1200 looks like the target to me.
Silver
Silver is much weaker than gold. I put Hecla HL at top and Coeur CDE both silver miners on bottom. Everything here looks like it is headed to a wash out or final give up phase.
This also makes a further bull case for next year as commodities had a weak week.
Last week I was more in the commodity bull camp. We shall see as I attempt to present both the bull and bear case this weekend.
Social Mood
Trump was in full Barack Obama campaign mode in Florida Friday Night. And there was a large crowd of supporters. No doubt the Democrats have tossed Conyers and Franken to claim the high ground should Moore win the race Tuesday in Alabama. We have an exclusionary picture with the Dems voting no on all the Republicans vote yes. by the way is Franken really going to resign? He claimed charges were either false or he remembered differently. And the resignation would happen in weeks. Hmm, a Clintonian dodge here? Wait for another crisis to surface and forget about the announcement?
Franken has not completed the ten years that would make him eligible for a lifetime pension at full pay, yes Congress voted that for themselves.
Elsewhere
Arab and European leaders furious over Jerusalem announcement by Trump
China shrugs over North Korea Impasse
Brexit Woes
Sanctuary City tensions heighten over Steinle verdict
Bitcoin goes wildly parabolic for the third time. The potential for collapse here is quite high.
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