Weekend Nov 25, 2017
Last week I mentioned moving to a focus on commodity related markets. I believe that will offer the best opportunity for the greatest returns this next year.
Let's start with a look at Robert Stovall's sector rotation chart.Link to site here.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?[SECT]
The sectors rotate from left to right. Tech has offered the best returns this past year with SMFT, FANG all soaring. Expect Industrials and then materials to move.the worst sector this year has been energy. I believe important lows are taking place in energy and commodity prices in general now. I will pass on AMZN over $1,000.
So here goes.
Goldman Sachs Commodity GSCI as listed on the CNBC ticker
A three year base has been built and GSCI should launch shortly. Notice it is making a slightly higher high And notice three of the MAS are converging the classic tip off before a change in trend.
Weekly WTIC closes over 200 Bar MA
Here is the weekly signal tings are getting under way, a close over the 200 bar weekly MA. It has taken three years but we are there now.
XOP
XOP Holdings
APACHE APA
APA had a nice pullback. We suggest placing successive lower price orders so one buys at lower prices,I doubt APA goes under 39 again.
FRAK -
Again an ideal set up, EMAs about to cross to the upside, PMO cross at bottom, RSI re testing 50%. And look at the exposure you are getting with EGO, APC, APA.
Owning XOP and FRAK would certainly be a nice diversification across smaller to mid sized producers XLE would be the largest, I am guessing XOP and FRAK offer better percentage potential.
XES Energy Service
once again the long term Moving Averages MAs are all coming together. XES is like other tracing out a two year bottom. Energy service usually has larger moves than energy production once oil fever sets in the markets.
CRAK for the refiners is trading at twice this price and had a wonderful up year moving from 17-29. FRAK is probably the better percentage bet.
RIG and ESV
RIG main panel and ESV top panel offer tremendous potential as offshore drillers, note, patience required!
Outside the Energy Sector
Agriculture - I like the Jim Rogers AG Fund symbol RJA at 6 dollars a lot better than I like Deere DE at 140.
http://www.etf.com/RJA
Uranium A major URA miner closed a mine to slow supply , here was the result
FCX Freeport McMoran
Copper and Gold
Copper Gold and other minerals, a well managed commodity firm
Iron Ore
CLF
If 1-12 was Wave 1, 12-6 should be near the low of Wave 2 a near perfect 50% re tracement. If there is more demand for steel and metals there will be for iron ore as well.
JJC Coper
If electric car charging stations are built in homes and parking lots, imagine the increase in demand for copper!
XME Metals and Mining
XME has yet to break the down trend in place since the 2011 top. But it is now above all four MAs, it is just a matter of time before launch.
URA has fallen from 110 to 12 and now 15.50 on the closing of one mine. But given all the difficulty of building nuclear hard to get enthusiastic.
Silver Miners
HL and CDE have been around for ever. Prices go to near nothing at times like this and then rebound.
HL is still falling, PMO not turning up at all. Looks like support is at 2.50-3.00 But once it makes a low, the potential as seen from 1.5-7.5 is there.
My bottom line is that ETFs like XOP and FRAK offer great potential in 2018.
Social Mood
I suspect despite what you read that both political parties are losing.
If in fact the Republicans deliver a tax bill, I doubt anyone other than a CEO with off shore billions will be able to tell the difference. Trump is scary with his trheats of pulling out of NAFTA.
The Dems really offer nothing in terms of policy change.Hillary would lose again today.
Peggy Noonan chronicles the end of disbelief of sexual assault accusers but Hillary was in the vanguard of covering for Bill who put their dynasty at needless risk with his antics.
Moore will be all alone if he wins, and if he loses the Republicans have less than the no hold on the Senate they have now. I suspect the markets like
Regulation repeal, conservative judges, realism towards North Korea, a tax policy that might allow trillions to return to the USA
Sure Trump is rough and thin skinned, but then so was Andrew Jackson.
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