Weekend July 2, 2017
I have probably been too optimistic on oil prices. Today we telescope from the very long term to the shorter term.
We do think prices are making a low between now and this Fall-Sept-October.
Long Term Monthly Chart - Negative
Our longer term perspective is that oil prices will bottom this fall. In the meantime things could get pretty depressing.
From the top panel
POM is reversing below the zero level, a very negative development on the monthly chart
In the main panel, the 34 bar EMA is well below the 13 bar EMA, another big negative, no sign of reversal
In the bottom panel MACD is making a series of lower highs and lower lows and is about to roll over again, another big negative
Weekly WTIC
Same story, from top to bottom PMO down, EMAs crossed over to the downside and MACD is heading down.
Daily WTIC
The daily chart is rallying off the lower limit of the downtrend channel. 49-50 should be resistance where this tops out. 'Again lower highs and lows across PMO at top, price in the middle and MACD in the lower panel.
USO Two Hour
Hmm things are getting over done in a hurry on the two hour chart. We can use this to help spot the top in the next week or so. The holiday may cause the rally to last into the week of July 10.
DUG A Bear ETF Energy Fund
DUG is just the opposite of USO, a long position will be warranted when DUG re tests the uptrend line.
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