Weekend Feb 11 2017
Tom McClellan-Low QQQ volume signals an early Feb top
I suspect this is going to last into March however.
Social Mood
Okay so I have been dead wrong about the market making a top as it continues is unabated ascent.
Positive social mood has the market at DJIA 20,200 and La La Land earning 14 Oscar nominations.
As I am so fond of saying, what could go wrong?
One of the tenets of socionomics is that there is always a mix of mood. Let's look back at how much faster mood is moving events now than then.
The anti-Trump movement has its roots in the Watergate Scandal that ran Nixon out of office. Notably, he lost credibility about lying during the cover up rather than being evicted for what Nixon himself termed a 'third rate burglary.'
Someone inadvertently mentioned the Nixon recording machine in the oval office and the countdown to resignation began. Soon the press was consumed with nothing but Watergate. But it took months for the whole thing to finally coalesce into Baker and Goldwater finally telling Nixon if he did not resign, he would be impeached and with Democrat majorities in both Houses, probably would be. Rather than put the country and himself through that Nixon resigned. I looked it up,the burglary occurred June 17, 1972. Nixon resigned August 9, 1974. So it took over a year to completely unravel amid Supreme Court rulings, firings at the Atty General's office, and other fiascos.
Let's compare that time line with today, just what, two or three weeks into the Trump Presidency.
business Insider claims the timeline of Trump's ties to Russia line u with allegations of conspiracy and misconduct.
Rep. Joaquin Castro calls for impeaching Trump. The reason is Trump's immigration order which is interesting in that Castro is an advocate of the certainly illegal sanctuary cities.
Protests for and against Planned Parenthood are underway across the country.
Democrats are are boycotting committee hearings and voted in bloc against Betsy DeVos requiring the first time ever tie breaker VP vote for a cabinet nominee.
And Trump isn't helping by announcing he will fight in the courts (and what court wold that be Donald, the grid locked Supreme Court?) and then admits he has not consulted the new Atty General about that.Donald seems to be deserving of the same depiction that Sam Nunn awarded Barry Goldwater, Nunn summed up Barry as
Ready, Fire, Aim
Stock Market
It seems reasonable to expect a return to the 95 level before we see any topping action in stocks.
Note the parabolic rise on the far left.
Ten Year Note Yield
Ten Year Note Yields are digesting their gains from November, now testing the 50 day AM.
Note that all MAs are now headed up, higher rates ahead!
Gold
I am still the only analyst I see breaking MAs down into smaller fractals, but they work also. Here Gold is hitting the resistance of its 125 day MA.
Crude Oil
Crude oil has taken out the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
we have suggested this would pro ject a final move to $75. but first stiff resistance lies at $60 on the weekly chart.
US Dollar
AND gold and crude oil will be fighting what looks like a renewed rise in the US Dollar. This is a picture perfect textbook pullback ikn price
staying on the uptrend support line with the MACD bottoming and now rising.
Bottom Line
Stocks should advance into the seasonal high of March/April, all systems are go.
Bond yields will eventually move higher further depressing REITs and Utilities.
Crude has resistance at $60.
Is god just in a reflexive bounce or is this a renewal of its bull move last year?
Social Mood
This week I placed my comments on social mood first in today's post. The political situation is eerily like 1973 when Nixon was re-elected. Today Trump is the most unpopular President ever. The voters are still unhappy, it is just sides have switched, now the Democrats have replaced the Republicans as unhappy.
And no one seems to like Congress.
Every single rating is Unfavorable, that is not a good social mood indicator. The New Civil War is on the rise again.
A continued tilt in the negative direction of mood will spell trouble for markets world wide. Speaking of which, England, France, Italy, Brazil, Venezuela, and Argentina, whoops forgot South Korea, are all or will change leaders. So the negative political mood is world wide. That can't be good.
denislelam@gmail.com
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