Transocean’s longtime shareholders have spent more time underwater than most of its deepwater drills. From a peak of $161 in 2008, the stock seemed to find a bottom below $50 amid the financial crisis of 2008-09. A sharp rally ended in 2010 when one of Transocean’s rigs exploded in the Deepwater Horizon disaster, killing 11 workers. The stock had settled at a new plateau below $40 by 2011. Knocked from that shelf by last year’s oil price decline, the shares bumped along near $9. A post-election spike to $15 has been followed by a slow drift down to $14. In all, Transocean’s market value has plummeted some 90%, to $5.4 billion.

Patient, value-oriented investors should feel safe to dip a toe back into Transocean (ticker: RIG), which analysts think can rise more than 35% over the next year or two as it navigates through lower revenues and higher losses toward a turnaround. Last Thursday’s stronger-than-expected earnings report was another sign of management’s ability to control costs.

Transocean RIG would rise 35%

Tom McClellan - Oil Leads Dow by Ten Years0

Add to this Insiide's prediction of a top now with a sell off in March April, and we have a repeat of the 2000-2001-2 sell off. This suggests a big drop before the 2018 elections which is way the 2000-2002 decline worked out. `fu\


  Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.03.33 AM

Transports rallied in strong fashion Friday. CCI needs to bounce off the zero line.

Ratio of Transports to Industrials

Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.05.43 AM

And the ratio chart of Transports to Industrials rallied Friday.

Same Chart with solid Line

Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.09.41 AM

John Murphy sees this as weakness but I have the advantage of Friday added to his Thursday analysis. It just nicked the 125 day line and is still above the 200.

Bullish Percent

Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.11.56 AM

But the bullish percent chart is now near its previous high. Caution is warranted, this is not low risk entry point

as last November was.


Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.46.24 AM

After selling off Both Utilities and REITs had a good week, this is another cautionary signal.

Miners versus Metals

CDE versus Silver

Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.20.43 AM

Looks like the mining stocks are falling out of favor again.  Better exit miners looking for lower lows.


Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.23.45 AM

Here RIG is testing its 50 week moving average, see remarks in intro quote.

Nat Gas

Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.27.13 AM

Natural Gas is right on its 50 week moving average. Like Crude Oil it is in no man's land and needs the MACD to turn up.

Crude Oil

Screen Shot 2017-02-26 at 11.30.04 AM

After doubling in price we have sideways action. This may take some time to develop.

 Bottom Line

The stock market rally is looking like it moves into its seasonal high of March April. See Rosenberg comments at open.

Nat gas and oil need more break out or break down signals.

Miners are not following gold and silver higher.


Social Mood

Pop Trends Price Culture

Maureen Dowd recounts Trump's obsession with his own public image.

This at least offers up an explanation for his thin skinned inabilility to withstand any criticism of any kind.   And this is after only one month, what if something serious happens?

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