Weekend Nov 19, 2016
The Better Title, How and Why the Democrats Lost
NOTE The time period for the next three charts is 3-11/199-11-11-2002
SPX
NDX NASD 100
DJIA
The Dow is the most widely quoted stock index, and the one most people pay attention. In this display of our analogous time, 1999-2002, the SPX and NDX dropped quickly. The Dow however was subject to holding up or appear to be holding up given the violent rallies that appeared to bring a recovery again and again.
NDX Now
The indices have all bounced from remarkable sell offs and in the case of the DJIA, made a new high.
DJIA
All in all a remarkable performance We will wait to see if the 40 year cycle begins to take hold as we move into 2017.
Interest Rates
Five Year Yield
We have been using the five year yield to track rates. Clearly it catapulted out of the gate this past three weeks.
Why does Yellen have any credibility, who cares what the FED does, the market has acted.
Closed End Municipals
Notice that rates rise much faster than they fall and so bond prices fall harder faster as well. No bottom here yet, will the closed end munis return to June 2015 where they began, looks like it!
REITS, Same Story
US Dollar
Given the dollar strength, no wonder stocks are up and just remarkable that gold, silver, and oil are not lower.
XAU
A support range exists between 67 and 76. In correcting, gold, silver and their shares always fall further than one might think. Stand by for entry points here.
The Bottom Line
If the markets are going to turn down, we should have an indication in the next week or two.
The dollar is likely to make a spike high when gold hits bottom. Consider adding in XAU positions on a move in gold to 1180.
Crude Oil is floating in the mid 40s and natural gas appears to be making a bottom at 2.50.
Social Mood
http://www.elliottwave.com/Podcast/Pop-Trends-Price-Culture
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