The Market Perspective

 

2016 Election Winners and Losers

Winners

Oil and gas industry, we may finally become energy independent from the Mid East. Energy and energy service stocks are now on a tear to the upside.

Health Care System staves off Government run Single Payer

US Military

Foreign Policy – the USA might actually have one in the future, even Putin agrees

Law and Order (600 murders in Chicago so far this year)

Legal Immigration, perhaps the new First Lady, Melania Trump, will be the symbol for just that.

Two Biggest Losers

There is a tie for the biggest loser. The first biggest loser in this are donors to the Clinton Foundation who will soon learn all about the No Refund Policy. What is the estimate of what the Clinton Foundation will receive in  2017 donations, a fraction of  2015-16, if any, I would guess as the Foundation Phone goes unanswered by Chelsea. 

Can we finally say good-bye to both the Bushes and the Clintons?

The second big loser has been the Democrat Office Holder. Since taking office in 2009 the Democrat party has gone from control of 60 of the 99 state houses to 30. Governorships have fallen from 29 to 15. Of the 193 House Members, one third are from California, Massachusetts, or New York.

Sore Losers – All these celebrities have promised to leave the country

Miley Cyrus – I don’t say things I don’t mean

Whoopi Goldberg – ‘I can afford to go’

Samuel Jackson – I’m moving to South Africa

George Lopez

Al Sharpton

Jon Stewart – ‘I would consider going to another planet’ (great you can head up the Mars team!)

Eddie Griffin – ‘I’m moving to Africa’

Cher – If Trump is elected I’m moving to Jupiter’ (I thought she was already on Jupiter….)

Winners – The rest of us, but dampen your expectations. Both Alex Baldwin and Barbara Streisand said the same about the Bush election …Ironically this group is all rich and or famous due to our capitalist system, but had they won, we of course, were expected to stay here and just put up with it….they are not about to, or so they say.

Losers

Political Correctness

Black Lives Matter

Department of Justice

George Will, Jonah Goldberg, Bill Kristol, who gave us Sarah Palin who did support Trump

Traditional Republican Party of Dole, McCain, and Romney,

Winners

Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter, Newt Gingrich, Rudi Gulliani, Sean Hannity, Mike Pence, Dr. Ben Carson

In Limbo

In my lifetime the Democrats have suffered huge setbacks at the national level including Presidential elections of 1968, 1980 (489-49, 1984 (525-13), and 1988 (426-111). The mid term elections since 2010 returned the House, then the Senate, and now the White House to Republicans for the first time since 1928! But never once have the Democrats changed their message or objective of turning the USA into a French style socialist nirvana.   Will the message or as always, the messenger, change this time?

Energy Issues

An early approval of the Keystone Pipeline would go a long way towards re assuring both Canada and the US that this administration takes energy independence seriously.

 

Follow Dennis at http://www.themarketperspective.com

Stocks Rally

Weekend Nov 13, 2016

I am sticking with the scenario that stocks are eventually more likely to fall than rally. We had a spike low the evening of the Trump win followed by an impressive rally i the DJIA and DJT. But the S & P needs a close to new highs over 2184 and the NASD 100 4919. The overbought condition of the markets suggest the rally should be nearing completion this week.

Bonds should be peaking now with higher interest rates and lower bond prices ahead.

Utilities

Utilities are dropping in expectation of higher rates.   REITs are doing the same.

Gold is headed to the low 1200s before its post February 2016 low will be seen. Silver is likely to hit 16.

The XAU will likely accompany gold and silver to lows in Mid December.

Crude oil made its low last January / February, look for a similar event this January. I suspect we see $40 again. Natural gas appears headed to 2.50 or lower.

Social Mood

Ann Coulter, like her or not, successfully predicted the uber negative mood of those who lost the election in her book

This summary at Aamzon accurately depicts what we are seeing across the country.

 

Pop Trends Price Culture

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The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or charts.

 

 

Market Rallies on Election Eve

Monday Nov 7 2016

America's real problem

It's the economy, it's robotization, it's the lousy education system, it's slowing spending , it's too expensive health care..

NYSE A/D

that may well be the extent of the sell off, quite  a reversal

 

DJIA Two Hour

That is quite a reversal, I take this to mean that WS has now dialed in a Hilllary victory, but not necessarily control of the Senate.

that was a whopping  371 points wiping out much of the recent decline.  NO doubt a lot of that was buying back by those short the amarket.

Bond yields were up a bit.

Crude oil and gold and silver were all up slightly.

Looks like it is time to give up on the short side....

 

 

Comey Clears Hillary, Again, DJIA up 250

Monday Nov 7, 2016

Looks like my instincts turned out to be right when I exited the short positions. The DJIA is up 250 or so this morning attributed to Comey letting Hillary off a second time. In addition the market was quite over sold down the most number of days in a row since 1980. Apparently the market is voting Hillary, rticles in the WSJ this morning suggest corporate cash is going to support Republicans in the Senate.   If the Republicans can hold the Senate and House we will see if Hillary is as clever as Barack at getting her way no matter what.

Stocks Down for a record number of Days Since 1980

Weekend Nov 5, 2016

Nothing Good can Come of this Election, and that's a good thing.

Of Two Minds makes the case the entire system has to hit rock bottom before it changes, bravo who would not agree, the corruption of Goldman Sachs money for dubious speeches to fund negative campaigning is truly disgusting.

Bill O'Reilly - Teh Campaign has been terrible for the spirit of this nation.

A really good summary on his Friday night show.

Overall market is much weaker than the index suggests

% Stock over  150 day MA

The market topped on August 15 and has been MUCH weaker since. It is quite possible it will catch up with a big swoon to the downside post election.

Weekly NYSE A/D

Now the weekly NYSE A/D has rolled over adding to the evidence of the down trending daily chart.

Five Year Yield

The five year yield is pulling back to test the break out over the 20 day MA, this will prove successful, ie,rates are headed up.

Gold Miners Bullish Percent

The advance since July has been wiped out.

XAU

I am not sure we are done with the correction here quite yet.

Crude Oil

This is clearly an important test of the up trend line. this week should tell the story of whether it holds, I am guessing it does. Energy stocks have pulled back here as well.

Stocks are headed down after peaking in August.This is probably the top of the bull run since March 2009. Expect a very slow meltdown in the stock market.

Interest rates are rising no matter what the FED does.

Gold and energy are pulling back from big advances since the start of this year.  Both these may frustrate traders before finding a bottom. Crude oil may wait another month or two.

Social Mood

Be sure to read O'Reilly's and of Two Minds  comments on how the negative tone of the campaign has helped no one nor the nation as a whole.

I really cannot improve on their observations.

Pop Trends Price Culture

 

[email protected]

The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or charts.

 

Colbert Takes on Hillary

Tuesday Nov 1 2016

You are losing when you are the object of a colbert rant on late night tv

The Market Fall Gets Underway

Tuesday Nov 1 2016

With three months down in a row and the lowest close in that time, I was clearly wrong in giving up on the short side.

Expect lower prices ahead, for everything other than gold and silver.

John Muprhy ascribes the market weakness to jitters about the election. But as we have shown for some time,  we have a confluence of cycles which have peaked, the only path now is down. This was made explicitly clear by the NYSE A/D Daily chart this weekend.