Weekend Sept 17, 2016
The Markets
Most markets peaked on August 15. Most markets then had an outside reversal day down on Sept 9, the Dow dropped near 400 points. Let's look closely.
DJIA
The big drop on Sept 9 is obvious. Now notice the despite all the press about Apple leading the NASD higher, the market is slowly working the over sold coneition off. The CCI has at least returned to -100. But the price is sitll below 18,400 where the big drop began. The resistance level just keeps dropping while most market observers are just waiting for the next rally.
DOW Transports
The Transports have led the way lower since November 2014. Notice this index is weaker than the Industrials. It has fallen below two of the MAs.
the NDX is the exception but as noted that has been driven by Apple's 14% rise on the new iPhone.
Yes we have been beating the same drum for a good while. But when the shelf of support for the DJIA at 18,000 breaks, there are likely to be thousands of stop sell orders triggered. We continue to believe the path of least resistance is much much lower.
DXD The counter trend rally gets underway
I suspect this is the start of the counter trend rally. DXD is a bear fund.
Interest Rates
Five Year Yield
Yields continue to advance hitting a new high this past week. Notice the nice trend line up under this index. Yet the press continues to obsess on what the FED will do. It does not matter the market is in charge and rates are rising.
US Dollar
The trend is up in the dollar. The larger move Friday pressured oil and other commodities to the downside.
Energy
With the US Dollar just now really starting to move, looks like a return to the August low at 39 is ahead.
Social Mood
Social Mood Sociometer
“You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people — now 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive, hateful, mean-spirited rhetoric. Now some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.”
—-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton during a fundraiser—just as Mitt Romney’s infamous “47%” comment in 2012 was made at a fundraiser!—the LGBT for Hillary Gala in New York City on Sept. 9, 2016.
Politics 101- Do not insult the voters
Charles Krauthammer
While our social mood section usually concludes the weekend update, I suspect as one caller remarked this week, this was Hillary's Howard Dean scream moment. Friday morning Trump hosted Medal of Honor and Silver Star winners several of who referred to themselves as 'deplorables.'
And of course as nothing is random in Hillaryworld, all is calculated, she spoke carefully and deliberatley, meaning every word. Trump supporters are not voting for Trump, they are voting for his stand against political correctness, which they abhor. The fact that Hillary would make such a statement speaks volumes as to how few people she believes actually support Trump. This switch in social mood dates back to the Tea Party. It is simply that Trump tapped into it, unlike the other dozen plus candidates. Hillary, her supporters and the media that supports here still do not understand this. They think the supporters love Trump's continual insults and such. No they ignore those as their disgust with PC is so much stronger.
The Mainstream Media
Pop Trends, Price Culture
I would suggest selling all interests in Formula One NOW!
[email protected]
The Market Perspective bases its information on techniques and sources that have been found to be reliable in the past, and The Market Perspective tries to base opinions on sound judgment and research, however, we do not guarantee that future results will match past performance and no guarantee can be made that advice will be profitable. The Market Perspective accepts no money for stock recommendations and is purely motivated by its own research in recommending any stocks. Put another way, the responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this letter lies solely with the individuals making those decisions. The editor and persons affiliated with The Market Perspective may at times have positions in securities mentioned. Nothing contained herein represents an offer to buy or sell securities. The Market Perspective encourages investors to be diversified, and to maintain sell stops and risk control over their valuable investment capital. No guarantee can be made to the accuracy of text or charts.