Weekend May 15, 2016
See Friday's post as part of the weekend update.
NASD
Moving averages tend to converge at major turn points. The blue arrows mark that from the November high and the current April high.
This convergence which is occurring at a lower high than in November, suggests the new trend is down, though the mainstream financial media.
Notice the decline from November to February was in five waves as shown by the PAR SAR
Be sure to see our Friday update on the ten week cycle and the weak retail sector. The rebound however was in three or A B C. This tell us the primary trend in now DOWN.
50 Day Per Cent Bull Market
The fifty day indicator is more sensitive than the 150 day. Accordingly it is well along in the next bear phase approaching the 50% marker.
150 Day
The 150 is just now breaking below its 34 day EMA. But the break is clear.
Transports
The Transports have led the way down since the top in Nov 2014. Here the Transports fall beneath the 13 and 34 EMAs and will shortly produce a PAR SAR sell signal.
And note that price just barely broke the EMAs before turning down again, so much for the strength of the rally.
US Dollar versus Canadian Dollar
The US Dollar demonstrated two weeks of solid rebound. Coupled with the low MACD this looks like a potential significant bottom. The Canadian Dollar in black is turning down.
IF that is the case, and I think so, the metals and energy are in for a correction.
WTIC
First resistance lies at 50 and then 60. As noted a strengthening dollar will make this a harder wall to climb.
Nat Gas Futures
Natural gas is, pardon the pun, running out of gas. The trend appears up but sideways for the last three weeks. Resistance is at 2.30 and then 2.50.
The Bottom Line
We look for the next stock market low the last week of June which is ten weeks from the April to which was ten weeks from the Feb 9 low.
Bonds remain indecisive. A strengthening dollar should bring pullbacks in gold, silver, and energy sectors.
Social Mood
Yours truly explains Mood in the Voices of Great Black Comedians. Matt Lampert is interviewed on NPR.
Food Reflects Mood
burger King follows Angry Burger with Angriest Burger with angry sauce
The bun is infused with hot sauce resulting in a red color!
With politics polarized to the worst ever point of exclusion, this would seem to reflect the mood of the potential voter better than anything else we have seen!
dennislelam@gmail.com
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